What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the first weekend of Week 5? Here you go. Enjoy.
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10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 27-24-1
Starting with a few that didn’t quite make the cut, but are still spicy …
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
LINE: Alabama -49, o/u: 68
ATS PICK: Louisiana
This is 100% pure theory coming into play.
Never, ever, ever, ever give away more than 40 points.
Too many things can go wrong, including the underdog scoring just a wee bit, the favorite taking its foot off the gas, an unfocused effort, a few poor plays by the backups, a turnover, a butterfly flaps its wings in Africa … anything.
If there’s even the slightest hiccup, it doesn’t work.
Oregon was more than a 40-point favorite against San Jose State a few weeks ago, and it won by 13.
Of course Alabama is going to win in a walk over the Ragin’ Cajuns, and of course there’s reason to worry considering Mississippi State beat this same team by 46 a few weeks ago and Bama beat Arkansas State by 50.
But 48.5 is a whole lot, Even for Alabama.
LINE: Colorado -9.5, o/u: 58
ATS PICK: Colorado
If it just so happens that UCLA picks this week to not be miserable, then so be it.
Tip your cap, and move on.
But so far, the Bruins haven’t been anything less than miserable, losing by nine to Cincinnati to start the season, by 28 to Oklahoma and by 24 to Fresno State.
At home, and with two weeks off after the layup against New Hampshire, this is about as ready and rested as Colorado can be. You’re asking for a ten-point win, and it might be a whole lot easier than that.
LINE: TCU -10.5, o/u: 46.5
ATS PICK: Iowa State
Is it possible that TCU just isn’t all that great?
It turned it on in weird weather conditions against SMU, and it manufactured points against Ohio State, but that loss to Texas was galling. That was the offense not working.
Speaking of struggling offenses, Iowa State can’t get David Montgomery and the ground attack going. Even so, it was able to hang within ten of Oklahoma, and the D held up against Iowa – another ten point loss. Points will likely come at a premium, and while TCU will win – and it’ll take some sweating to get here – the 10.5 will be just a little bit too much.
LINE: Washington -17, o/u: 45.5
ATS PICK: BYU
Washington has to work so, so hard.
It might be the best team in the Pac-12, but it has yet to score more than 27 against an FBS team, and the 45 it put up came against North Dakota.
BYU has been able to keep every game against the FBSers tight. It played a hard battle at Arizona and won by five. It pulled off the shocker against Wisconsin, and even the loss to Cal was close, losing by three.
Assume Washington isn’t going to blow past 30 points, and BYU should be able to hammer out at least two touchdowns.
LINE: Fresno State -8.5, o/u: 61.5
ATS PICK: Toledo
Of course there’s reason to worry considering Toledo got wiped out at home by Miami a few weeks ago and this is the first road game of the season.
But the Rockets also beat Nevada 63-44 last week.
Fresno State might be solid, rested and it’s the first home game in almost a month, but the 8.5 is a big lift. In a game that should be loaded with big plays and lots of points, it’s not crazy to think the Rockets could rise up and win this outright.
Hate it if it was around seven, cool with that 8.5.
The Bulldogs don’t generate a pass rush, and for the first time, they’re playing someone with a big-time air show.