Oklahoma vs. Baylor Fearless Prediction, Game Preview

By: Pete Fiutak | September 27, 2018 1:59 am

Oklahoma vs. Baylor fearless prediction and game preview.

Broadcast

Date: Saturday, September 29
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Network: ABC

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Oklahoma (4-0) vs. Baylor (3-1) Game Preview

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One Reason Why Baylor Will Win

Oklahoma isn’t looking like the dominant machine it was over the first two weeks. It struggled with Iowa State, and it needed overtime to get by Army.

So how can Baylor replicate what the Cyclones and Knights did to keep this close? Step One is to not screw up.

One of the biggest differences with the Bears so far has been the turnover margin. It’s No. 1 in the nation with a +3 per game, giving it up just once so far. It’s not going to beat itself and let Oklahoma take advantage for easy points.

It’s also No. 1 among all Big 12 teams in pass defense. Granted, playing UTSA and Kansas help the stat, but the D really has been better. Even when Duke was able to have some success with three touchdown passes, it only hit 40% of its passes.

The other big difference? The Bears aren’t going at warp speed. This week that will matter against an Oklahoma team that just doesn’t have the ball enough. Playing Army will skew the stat overall, but BU will own the time of possession.

One Reason Why Oklahoma Will Win

Yeah, the Baylor pass defense has been good at not giving up a ton of yards, but it’s about to give up home run shot after home run shot.

Oklahoma is a killer at turning quick passes into explosive killers, and Kyler Murray and company will have a whole lot of fun against a secondary that’s allowing over nine yards per completion – the worst in the Big 12.

And how did the running game do without Rodney Anderson? When it was able to get on the field against Army, it wasn’t bad, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Baylor is going to have to pick its poison, and it might not matter. The Sooners are going to be able to score and move the ball any way it wants to.

The Baylor offense should be able to keep up the pace a little bit – the passing game has been dangerous, too – but at home, Oklahoma’s O is at a whole other level.

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What’s Going To Happen

After the near miss against Army last week, the Oklahoma defense will be far stronger at getting off the field.

Baylor will come up with its share of points to keep this from getting brutally ugly, but Murray and the receiving corps will connect on at least three plays of more than 40 yards to keep forcing Charlie Brewer and the Bear offense to press.

This week be a wee bit of a shootout, but a big Sooner run in the second quarter will take the drama out of this.