2018 NFL Draft: The prop bets with where the prospects might be going, and how many.
NFL Draft Prop Bets
I was in Vegas and was JUST talking with the lads at VSIN about when and if the prop bets were going to come out for the NFL Draft. And then …
William Hill and Bovada posted their props for the 2018 Draft, with when certain players might go, the number of prospects and players taken in certain spots, and how many players from top teams were going to go.
Here are the most interesting props, along with what’s going to happen.
Who Will Be The First Overall Pick
Sam Darnold -240
Josh Allen +160
Saquon Barkley +550
Baker Mayfield +1000
Josh Rosen +1800
Bradley Chubb +4500
The Best Value Picks: 1) Rosen, 2) Barkley, 3) Allen
Darnold isn’t the lock you think it is. Remember, there’s a shot Cleveland trades out of this, and there’s a shot that Rosen – the best pure passer in the draft – is the guy. At +1800, it’s with a flier.
Who Will Be The Second Overall Pick
Saquon Barkley +190
Bradley Chubb +275
Sam Darnold +275
Josh Allen +350
Josh Rosen +400
Baker Mayfield +1500
Lamar Jackson +4000
Marson Rudolph +6000
The Best Value Picks: 1) Barkley, 2) Chubb, but …
See if you can get The Field, or Quenton Nelson. The Giants won’t go quarterback, so either it’s Barkley, or Nelson might just slip into that spot and surprise the world.
Who Will Be The Third Overall Pick
Josh Rosen +140
Baker Mayfield +160
Sam Darnold +400
Josh Allen +500
Saquon Barkley +550
Bradley Chubb +1100
The Best Value Picks: 1) Allen, 2) Chubb, 3) Barkley
Again, be careful of the trade. The Jets could move up or down, which then makes Chubb a huge value investment at +1100, and Barkley even more of a lock at +550. If the Jets do stay put, and if it goes Darnold 1, Barkley 2, then Allen is a great pick at +500
Will Any Of The Top 5 Picks Be Traded On Draft Day
Pick: Yes. At +225?! With teams likely do everything possible to overpay for that Cleveland fourth pick and a quarterback, and with Denver likely to be a factor? Oh yeah, there will be trades.
Quarterbacks Drafted In Round 1
OVER: -120, UNDER: +100
The Pick: EVEN. It’s not going over – Mason Rudolph almost certainly isn’t going in the first round – so it’s whether or not Lamar Jackson is going in the top 32. Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield are locks, so then it’s up to someone pulling the trigger on Lamar. Someone will.
Quarterbacks Drafted In Rounds 1 & 2
OVER: -160, UNDER: +140
The Pick: OVER. Lamar Jackson is definitely going in the second round if it’s to the first, and Mason Rudolph is a possibility in the first, much less the second.
Running Backs Drafted In Round 1
OVER: +105, UNDER: -125
The Pick: OVER. Saquon Barkley is obviously one, and there’s just enough smoke around Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, and Ronald Jones to think one will slide in. This is hardly a lock, though.
Running Backs Drafts In Rounds 1 & 2
OVER: -120, UNDER: +100
The Pick: UNDER. Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice are obvious, but that’s about it. Will Nick Chubb go in the second? How about Royce Freeman? Round 3 will be loaded with RBs.
Wide Receivers Drafted In Round 1
OVER: -175, UNDER: +155
The Pick: OVER. Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton are easy, and then assume a DJ Chark or DJ Moore slides on in. 2010 was the last time fewer than three receivers end in the first. But …
Wide Receivers Drafted in Rounds 1 & 2
OVER: +120, UNDER: -140
The Pick: UNDER. Figure Ridley, Sutton, Chark and Moore are locks to go in the first two rounds. Throw in a Christian Kirk here, and a James Washington there, and this gets interesting. But fewer than six will go.
Draft Position: Josh Rosen vs. Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen -1.5 -160
Sam Darnold +140
The Pick: Darnold. There’s a chance Josh Allen goes No. 1 overall to Cleveland, but Darnold won’t fall out of the top five. Depending on future trades, let’s go with Darnold going 1, and Rosen going 3 to the Jets.
Draft Position: Josh Allen vs. Saquon Barkley
Josh Allen -0.5 -145
Saquon Barkley +125
The Pick: Barkley. Will Josh Allen really go No. 1 to Cleveland? Nah. Will Barkley? Nah. But Barkley isn’t getting out of the top four, while Allen might slide just a wee bit.
Draft Position: Josh Allen vs. Bradley Chubb
Josh Allen +115
Bradley Chubb -0.5 +125
The Pick: Chubb. We know Chubb will go in the top five, while Allen isn’t a totally sure thing. Chubb isn’t getting out of the top few picks, and even though Allen could go No. 1 overall, he’s a better value investment here.
Draft Position: Bradley Chubb vs. Saquon Barkley
Bradley Chubb -1.5 +110
Saquon Barkley -130
The Pick: Barkley. Interesting. This seems off – Barkley might just be No. 1 overall. Go the other way, and you’re assuming Chubb will end up living in New York.
Draft Position: Baker Mayfield vs. Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson -7.5 EVEN
Baker Mayfield -120
The Pick: Mayfield. Hmmmmmmmm. Jackson seems like a lock for Arizona at the 15, so can Mayfield stay inside the top seven? Figure Mayfield goes to either Denver or Buffalo – if the Bills move up – and Arizona stays at home to get Jackson.
Draft Position: Minkah Fitzpatrick vs. Derwin James
Minkah Fitzpatrick -0.5 -125
Derwin James +105
The Pick: Fitzpatrick. James is the better safety, but come draft time, Fitzpatrick will be a top ten prospect again. Even so, James is getting the better odds – he’s hardly a crazy pick to go earlier.
Draft Position: Roquan Smith vs. Tremaine Edmunds
Roquan Smith -1.5 -120
Tremaine Edwards EVEN
The Pick: Edwards. Smith is either a lock for the Raiders at ten, or that’ll be where Edmunds goes. Don’t be stunned if Edmunds goes way before Smith – like to Chicago at the 8.
Who’ll Be Drafted First: Sony Michel vs. Nick Chubb
Sony Michel +110
Nick Chubb -130
The Pick: Michel. Throughout the draft process over the last few months, Michel was considered the better all-around prospect. However, Chubb might be starting to move up into second round range. Michel is getting better value deal, too.
Who’ll Be Drafted First: Rashaad Penny vs. Ronald Jones
Rashaad Penny +210
Ronald Jones -250
The Pick: Jones. And it might not even be close, hence the hefty value to take the USC star. Penny is a great option, but Jones might just be a first rounder. Penny isn’t.
Who’ll Be Drafted First: Courtland Sutton vs. Calvin Ridley
Courtland Sutton +160
Calvin Ridley -160
The Pick: Sutton. And double that sentiment with the value he’s getting. Ridley might be the better player – and was better in college – but he could slide just enough to be a missing piece pick later in the first round. Watch out for Sutton to move on up.
Who’ll Be Drafted First: DJ Chark vs. James Washington
DJ Chark -110
James Washington -110
The Pick: Chark. There’s a chance Chark moves into the late part of Round 1. The scouts love him after the offseason process, and while Washington is a great prospect, he’s more like an early third rounder.