18 for ’18: 18 key offseason topics: No. 16, who are the best longshot teams to possibly win the College Football Playoff national championship?
18 for ’18: No. 16 Five Best College Football Playoff National Championship Longshots
Investing in a possible national champion isn’t always fair. You can be right – for the most part – and still not win.
If you picked Georgia at 25/1 before last season to win the College Football Playoff National Championship, you made a great call … but not quite.
And unlike trying to pick the college basketball national championship, you have to nail it down from a relatively small choice of teams. Right now, if you could take Alabama (9/4), Clemson (11/2), Ohio State (7/1) and Georgia (8/1), or the rest of the field, what do you do?
First, you have to figure out who’s probably going to get into the tournament in the first place – to go cliche, you have to be in it to win it. Again, it’s not like the NCAA hoops thing – you can’t finish fifth in your conference and pull this out. You HAVE to figure out who the conference champs are going to be – or close to it.
And then, you have to pick the team that’ll win it – and probably beat both Alabama and Clemson to do it.
So from the ridiculous to the sublime, here are five longer-shot calls to make in case you feel like dabbling. Starting with the totally silly, but potentially fun, if you have extra coin burning a hole in your pocket …
5. San Diego State Aztecs
Current Odds To Win The National Title: 1,200/1
Yeah, and a 16 will never beat a 1, either – I just talked to a friend whose guys each put $100 down on the UMBC money line vs. Virginia.
First, on the whole idea that a Group of Five team can’t get in, UCF couldn’t do it because it didn’t beat anyone amazing, and neither did Western Michigan the year before. But had the 2016 Houston Cougars not wet themselves in a few key conference games, they would’ve had the resume to make a case, with dominant wins over eventual Big 12 champ Oklahoma and Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson’s Louisville.
San Diego State has a loaded offensive line to keep the ground game going, another strong defense, a veteran quarterback in Christian Chapman, and … no shot.
The Aztecs go to Stanford to open the season and host Arizona State. Those are two restaurant quality Power Fivers on the slate, to go along with road games at Boise State and Fresno State. Win those four, don’t gack the winnable dates, and win the Mountain West title.
Do that, go 13-0, and get ready for the outcry that they deserve a spot in the fun.
Of course, then they actually have to win those two extra games, but there’s a reason this is at 1,200 to 1.
Now, enough dumb and dangerous and on to the safe and sane.