What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks for point totals and over/unders going into Saturday of Championship Week? Here you go. Enjoy.
It’s a breakthrough.
After weeks and weeks of 5-5 mediocrity, 7-3 feels like a breath of fresh air. There might not be a slew of games this week, but there are certainly ten that look spicy enough to bite into.
7-3 will look like a disappointing bucket of spit compared to these picks that are, obviously, correct.
Top Over/Under Picks So Far: 52-48
Please click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Line: New Mexico State -10, o/u: 53.5
Very motivated for a whole slew of reasons, the New Mexico State offense should mostly be able to roll because it needs this to go bowling. Don’t get freaked out the recent 17-10 win over Idaho – the Vandals are keeping scores low. There’s a shot the Aggies hit at least the 35-point mark. USA will at least come up with 20.
Line: USC -4, o/u: 58.5
Don’t be fooled by the Week Two 42-24 USC win over the Cardinal – this won’t be anywhere close to being as much of a shootout, at least on the USC side. None of Stanford’s last eight games has gone over the 58.5 point mark, and this one won’t, either.
The Cardinal haven’t allowed more than 24 points in any of those eight games, the offense isn’t all that explosive when Bryce Love isn’t ripping off big dashes. USC’s O might be rolling, but not in Santa Clara.
Line: Georgia Southern -3, o/u: 52
Ever since the coaching change, the Georgia Southern offense has started to work. It hit South Alabama for 52 points, and it cranked it up against Louisiana for 34 last week. It’ll take care of most of the work by itself, and at home, Coastal Carolina should be able to come up with a few touchdown – blow off the 13-7 win over Idaho.
Speaking of the Vandals …
Line: Georgia State -6, o/u: 46
It’s so, so crazy that the program known for one of the worst defenses in college football years after year is now starting to rock on that side of the ball. The Vandals have allowed 24 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games, with only the loss to Missouri being the aberration. The last three games all fell under the 46 point mark.
Line: UCF -7, o/u: 81
Oh, why not? The 81 point total is stupid-high – it was 82 up until yesterday – and these two still might blow past it.
Memphis has scored 41 points or more in six of its last seven games, hitting SMU for 66 two weeks ago and followed it up with 70 against East Carolina. UCF has scored 45 points or more in six of its last eight games, and it won’t be shy about getting into a shootout.
Yeah, the first meeting was a 40-13 UCF win. Think of this more like last week/s 49-42 victory over USF.
Line: PICK, o/u: 60
This is so, so dangerous because the Arkansas State offense is just do good – it’s coming off a 67-point day against ULM. But the defense – before last week – has been solid, too, allowing 25 points or fewer in its previous six games.
The Troy D has allowed 24 points or fewer in every game. All 11. Take the shot that this thing hovers around the 20s.
Line: Florida Atlantic -11.5, o/u: 74
Offense, offense, offense. FAU is a dead-solid lock for at least 30 points, and more like 40 at home with the offense humming. The first time around against North Texas, the Owls cranked up 69 points as the two combined for 100 points.
The Mean Green defense hasn’t been awful, but the offense has been on fire and should put up at least 30 points. Be shocked if this isn’t a fun and wild shootout.
Line: Boise State -9, o/u: 50
The two just played and combined for 45 points, but now Boise State is going to start trying and get the offense going? Maybe, but the defense should be better with the championship on the line.
Fresno State hasn’t allowed more than 26 points in any of its last ten games, and the only two teams to score more on the year were Alabama and Washington way back in early September. Only one of the last eight Fresno State games has gone over 50, and Boise State has allowed 19 points or fewer in five of its six home games.
Line: Florida State -27, o/u: 64.5
Jimbo, schmimbo. Florida State still needs this to go bowling, it’s still going against a defense that gives up a bazillion points per game, and it’s still going to put up big numbers. But ULM might help the cause.
The Warhawks didn’t just put up 50 points or more in two of its last three games, but they did it against Arkansas State and Appalachian State – they aren’t that bad – and they’ve scored 23 points or more in every game but two. Meanwhile, the defense has allowed 42 points or more in each of its last three games and four of the last six.
Line: Toledo -21.5, o/u: 57.5
Always like the games with at least one team that can hit the number by itself. This is a fired up and motivated Toledo team – at least that appears to be the attitude – that put up 48 points on Akron in the first meeting, and should be a lock for 40 points if the machine is humming from the start.
Can the Akron offense keep up a wee bit? Will the defense screw things up by coming up with something special? The Zips don’t get into a lot of shootouts, but they might not have a choice in the MAC title game.