Week 12 College Football Final Thoughts, Predictions & Investment Advice
The final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice to make your life a heck of a lot better than it currently is.
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Week 12 Final Thoughts & Investment Advice
That just doesn’t happen.
You simply don’t have so many mega-blowouts in so many big games that weren’t even competitive.
Who could’ve guessed that Notre Dame and its amazing running game would try to come out throwing against that defense?
Auburn winning? Okay, but like that over the CFP No. 1 team?
The Iowa offense that ripped up Ohio State was held to a historically low 66 yards by Wisconsin, and the Buckeyes would go out and do that to Michigan State?
The TCU defense went bye-bye, Alabama looked mortal, and after all the craziness, we get the calm before the storm with a light week.
But you know better.
In the investment world, Coastal Carolina vs. Idaho can be every bit as important as Michigan vs. Wisconsin.
This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only, however, just in case you dabble …
Call this Flaky Friday. You’re going to play, and I’ll try to help you, but if you’re going to do this, go lowwwwwwww.
Middle Tennessee seems like the easy pick considering Western Kentucky is on a three-game losing streak and the defense isn’t doing much of anything – and you’re right. The Hilltopper wins? Eastern Kentucky, Ball State, UTEP, Charlotte, Old Dominion. All this resume needs is a little frosting.
No, you don’t have a handle on UNLV. No one does. The New Mexico offense doesn’t work anymore, but it’s at home and the Rebels can’t stop the run. The Lobos are the total coin-flip guess – okay, it’s more than that considering they’re at home and can run a little bit – but again, lowwwwwwwwww. | UNLV vs. UNM Game Preview
Rutgers tends to play grind out, stall ball games, and the Indiana offense is just okay. It’s a home game, and the Hoosiers need this, but the 11 seems a bit rich. | IU vs. Rutgers Game Preview
Don’t try to get into the head of Georgia right now. It’s a home game, the team is far better than it showed against Auburn, and it’s about crank out a massive performance against an offensively challenged Kentucky team. UK has a D, but don’t worry. The Bulldogs will rebound. Fast. | UGA vs. UK Game Preview
Work with me on this. I think Cincinnati is going to beat East Carolina by four. I know Cincinnati is going to beat East Carolina by four. My pick is Cincinnati over East Carolina by four. But, literally, as I’m typing this, I’m not liking the idea of Cincinnati over anyone by four. | UC vs. ECU Game Preview
Duke is awful. It stopped scoring, the defense is totally picking up the slack, and Georgia Tech is coming off a nice performance. The Yellow Jackets might be looking ahead to Georgia, but this shouldn’t be a problem. | GT vs. Duke Game Preview
Pitt will lose to Virginia Tech by more than two touchdowns, it’ll be a massive underdog at home to Miami, and then the line will change big-time as people start to realize the guys from Coral Gables will have to play in Pittsburgh in late November. | Pitt vs. VT Game Preview
Speaking of weather …
This really, really hurts. I know, Temple has been solid lately, and I know, UCF isn’t destroying teams, The guys from Orlando have to play in Philadelphia, but it’s not supposed to be that cold. It physically hurts me to say this, so like a Band-aid, I’ll rip it right off fast … UCFisn’tcoveringthe13.5OUCH | UCF vs. Temple Game Preview
Hate the NC State -1.5 pick over Wake Forest, love and smooches to the over on the 63. NC State will take care of at least 35 of this on its own, and the last three Wake Forest games? 74, 85, 107. | NC State vs. Wake Forest Game Preview
Louisville -13 over Syracuse? I love Lamar Jackson, but if you’re thinking this might come anywhere near the 72.5 point total, this is going to be a firefight and the Orange should keep up the pace. | UofL vs. SU Game Preview
Northwestern does like to play low scoring games, and it does like to avoid making anything easy, but go with the idea that last week as a whole was an aberration – Minnesota isn’t going to go Nebraska game in Evanston. | NU vs. Minn Game Preview
Michigan State should be able to shut down Maryland cold, but this is a scary team that’s not running the ball well enough. The 16 shouldn’t be an issue if you think the Spartans can get up early. | MSU vs. MD Game Preview
I refuse to waver from my core belief that West Virginia is good. Texas is solid, but at home, the Mountaineers are only giving up three. It’ll be close, but it’s statement time over the next two weeks for Will Grier and this offense. | WVU vs. Texas Game Preview
Do you think Kansas will score? Do you think Oklahoma will show a little mercy? Sometimes it’s easy to talk your way into a big number, but all it might take is a late touchdown against third-teamers for KU to get past the massive 37 mark. | OU vs. KU Game Preview
As insane as this might sound, Wyoming’s offense might just run better without a guy who might just be a top five draft pick. Josh Allen’s shoulder is a concern, but in a defensive struggle in a game both teams need, assume Wyoming will find a way over Fresno State as a home dog. | UW vs. FSU Game Preview
I told you last week that Boise State -6 was a lock against Colorado State – yeeeeeeeesh – and it’s an even bigger one this week against Air Force. The Falcons can’t stop the run even a little bit. The Falcons can’t throw even a little bit. Boise State is in the Mountain West title with a win, it’s at home … the 17.5 might be at least ten points light. | Boise State vs. AF Game Preview
Utah State vs. Hawaii might be a bit more of a defensive slugfest than the 56 point total might suggest. Neither offense does anything particularly well – watch out for low-scoring, tighter than the 11. | USU vs. UH Game Preview
Ray Lawry. Old Dominion is awful when he’s not healthy, less awful when he can go. He ripped through FIU’s great defense for 168 yards last week, and he’ll single-handedly take care of Rice -8.5.
Southern Miss should rip apart a miserable Charlotte team by way, way, way more than 17. But the Golden Eagles never seem to fail to disappoint, especially in last week’s 43-34 win over Rice. Hold your nose, and assume the 49ers keep this way too tight.
BYU has managed to screw things up over the last few games by deciding to play offense again. UMass has more offensive weapons, so even though the Cougars have found something on the ground over the last few weeks. In another one of those hatable games to pick – BYU, because it’s at home.
Louisiana Tech is horrible. It lost four of its last five, only beat a more horrible Rice team by 14, and has only scored more than 27 points this in the nine games against FBS teams. But it’s UTEP. This team loses by 17 for breakfast. The final score might just be 19-1.
Yeah, Georgia Southern is at home, but until it proves it can actually win a game – tick tock, kids – -4 to a South Alabama team that needs this to stay alive for a bowl game means nothing.
TCU, Take Two: Memory dump what you saw last week. Yes, Texas Tech is at home. Yes, it needs this game. But yes, TCU really is still in the Big 12 title chase with an outside shot at the CFP. The seven is nothing. | TCU vs. TT Game Preview
Iowa isn’t as good as it played against Ohio State, and it’s not as bad as it played against Wisconsin. That somewhere in the middle is good enough to roll at home past Purdue. | Iowa vs. Purdue Game Preview
Arizona getting points against Oregon has to be a misprint. However, an old and dear friend who knows the situation way too closely thinks the Ducks are winning this. Never go against the expert, but … I can’t do it. Justin Herbert is probably going to give it a go, but give me Arizona and points. | UO vs. AZ Game Preview
Personal rule: Always go with the underdog on a 40-point spread. I have no date to back it up, but 1,000 things can go wrong to keep that from happening. Ohio State wins easily, but even if it cranks Illinois with ease, don’t alter the plan. | OSU vs. Illinois Game Preview
Of course UAB could beat Florida. Of course I keep whiffing on Florida week after week after week. Of course I’m going with Florida -10.5. Of course I’ll be wrong, but I just can’t do pull the UAB trigger. | UAB vs. UF Game Preview
Arizona State is SO much better than Oregon State, and it needs to win this to go bowling – it can’t leave that up to the Arizona game. But at home, in a lost season, going with gut feeling that the Beavers keep this tight, if not pull if off outright. | ASU vs. OSU Game Preview
Memphis and SMU are almost the same team. They both throw it all over the yard, neither one can play a lick of defense, and they both have the talent to make this the weekend’s wildest shootout. Memphis is deep in the hunt for a New Year’s Six bowl, but … 72.5 over – done. SMU getting 12.5 – double done. | SMU vs. MU Game Preview
I know I told you Notre Dame would win. I know I told you Virginia Tech would win. I know you’re not going to believe me this week, and I know you’re not going to believe me next week vs. Pitt if and when I get this wrong. But if Virginia doesn’t throw a ton of picks, it has a real, live letdown shot at Miami.
This is a smart, well-coached Cavalier team that might just throw a deep scare into a Cane squad that can’t convert third down chances. Liked it at 17, loving it at 19. If you’re looking for this weekend’s possible curveball … | UVa vs. Miami Game Preview
Sometimes, you just are who you are. Baylor is throwing better, but Iowa State is just too solid. Even on the road, the 9.5 might not be as much of an issue as many might think. | ISU vs. BU Game Preview
Arkansas, you had better not pick now to decide to start playing. There might be a post-Alabama effect for Mississippi State, but this Hog team just can’t seem to do enough offensively. Bulldogs, if you’re for real, you win by two touchdowns. | MSU vs. Arkansas Game Preview
Okay, Missouri. Buying the stock now after it already shot up, but I’m buying. Vanderbilt will make this a firefight at times, but having been a non-believer in Mizzou over the last few weeks, you’ve shown me. | MU vs. VU Game Preview
Also falling into the Last Week Was An Aberration theory: Washington is good, Utah isn’t, Washington rolled at home, even if the passing game has strangely decided to take a break. | UW vs. Utah Game Preview
Just …. be careful here with Auburn. ULM can put points on the board, it’s an all-timer of a sandwich game for the Tigers, and this might take a little bit of an effort to put away by more than 37. Auburn will do its part, but don’t be stunned if the Warhawks come up with at least 20 points. | AU vs. ULM Game Preview
Kansas State has become the ultimate Play To Competition Level team. Oklahoma State will win – the Wildcats can’t stop a good passing game – but the 20 is a wee bit much. | OSU vs. KSU Game Preview
Forget everything I said about massive spreads. Colorado State and 33 vs. San Jose State might just ten points low. If the Rams are past the Boise State choke, this will be brutal. | CSU vs. SJSU Game Preview
Minnesota couldn’t score 54 points against air, and yet it beat Nebraska 54-21 last week. If you haven’t already done the right thing with the 55.5 point total for the Penn State home date with the Huskers – the Nittany Lions might hit that themselves – I can’t help you. | PSU vs. Neb Game Preview
There’s a not-that-crazy a chance that Tennessee starts to play well under Brady Hoke. It’s not worth the chance, though, that it’ll be able to score enough on LSU – Derrius Guice is about to go OFF | to cover the 15.5. | LSU vs. Tenn Game Preview
Navy is just okay against the run and can’t get into the backfield. Notre Dame isn’t going to make the same mistake twice – it’s about to run amok on the Midshipmen, but Navy has a way of playing every game relatively tight. Even so, I changed the pick in the preview after overthinking it a bit. | ND vs. Navy Game Preview
Houston is playing just well enough up front to keep the Tulane running game from taking off and controlling things. It would be nice if the Cougars could bomb away a bit, but they should be able to win this with ease. | UH vs. Tulane Game Preview
Don’t be scared by New Mexico State going on the road to deal with ULL. The Aggies are 3-3 away from Las Cruces, but played Arizona State tight and scored on Appalachian State and Arkansas.
It’s the final home game as an FBS team – for now. Idaho isn’t going to blow this against Coastal Carolina at home in what should be an emotional fight for the Vandals. They’re still in the hunt for a bowl game, and they’re going to need this with ease.
That’s it. I’m done thinking Army can’t win against any Group of Five team. I don’t care that North Texas is at home. I don’t care that it’s playing with the offense humming. Army is getting points? Done.
Arkansas State is four touchdowns better than Texas State, but the Bobcats – even with all of the losing – are stating with everyone. I can be talked out of it, but ASU wins easily, but not by 26.5.
FAU should be able to roll past a FIU team that’s struggling. FAU should be able run all over the Golden Panthers, considering Old Dominion was able to rumble at will. But it’s a new rivalry game that hasn’t taken on this type of importance, ever. FAU is much, much better, but in a game like this, 14.5 seems too rich.
It doesn’t matter that Boston College is breaking in a new starting quarterback. It needs this win over UConn to go bowling, and in Fenway Park, it’s going to get it by running wild against a miserable D. | BC vs. UConn Game Preview
Marshall has been just okay lately, but the defense should come up with something solid on the road against a UTSA team that needs this. the Roadrunners’ best win this year? Baylor in the opener. Take the Herd as a Pick.
It’ll be a three point win either way when Texas A&M visits Ole Miss. I’ll take the shot on the Rebels at home, but ask me ten minutes from now and I can be convinced the other way. | A&M vs. Ole Miss Game Preview
Can Wisconsin bring that defense again? The Badgers are really banged up, and they’re still really that good. It’ll be an early start, but at home in a super-charged environment, Wisconsin will challenge the Wolverines to throw deep, and it won’t happen.
Expect a far higher score than the 39.5 total and a Badger win. (Foreshadowing time: Minnesota will give the Bucky a tougher time.) | UW vs. Michigan Game Preview
Everyone will come to see Josh Rosen vs. Sam Darnold, and it’ll be Ronald Jones who’ll steal the show. If you can get any sort of a prop on USC rushing yards, go higher. It’s going to be a shootout – UCLA getting 16 is way, way too much. | UCLA vs. USC Game Preview
Again, falling for the rivalry side of things, all it will take is for Bryce Love to tweak his ankle just a little bit, and that 15.5 vs. Cal will look be look like a big bag of happy. | Cal vs. Stanford Game Preview
And Finally …
For the second week in a row, if you’re chasing, and you need that late night fix … boom.
If Boise State -6 vs. Colorado State last week was Mountain West Christmas, even if it took a while for Santa to deliver the presents, then San Diego State -16.5 vs. Nevada is the fun you have getting what you really want after returning the sweatervests and all things Chia.
San Diego State still needs to win, and it’s about to run for roughly one bajillion yards on the Wolf Pack D.