Week 11 College Football Final Thoughts, Predictions & Investment Advice
The final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice to make your life a heck of a lot better than it currently is.
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Week 11 Final Thoughts & Investment Advice
The College Football Playoff rankings didn’t change up all that much, but there’s no way you saw Ohio State losing like that to Iowa.
What about Alabama being just okay against LSU, and Florida forgetting to get on the bus for Missouri?
Sometimes, at this time of year, teams just don’t show up, and all the analysis in the world doesn’t matter a lick if the team comes out and plays like a dog.
That’s what I’m here for.
If you don’t want to know what’s about to happen, turn away now.
This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only, however, just in case you dabble …
This Washington at Stanford game is a problem. As if it isn’t funky enough on a Friday night, this just might be a total trap.
Washington is good at this football thing, and Stanford isn’t, but the Huskies have beaten nobody. That changes with the Apple Cup against Washington State in a few weeks, and likely against USC in the Pac-12 Championship, but for now, -6 at Stanford is scary.
I’m in, anyway. The Cardinal can’t throw, Bryce Love couldn’t bust out against Washington State, and the Huskies are just better. | UW vs. Stanford Game Preview
This is a weird Temple team. It’s able to hang tight with a whole slew of bad teams, and Cincinnati is a bad team. I hate doing this, but the Bearcats lost to Navy by ten, Temple beat Navy – albeit with a banged up QB Zach Abey – last week … Temple.
UNLV might be the flakiest of the flaky, but with no Tanner Mangum, of course you’re taking the chance that BYU’s offense will be brutally sad. The 49.5 total seems a bit hight considering the Cougars will struggle to get 20 points.
It doesn’t matter if Maryland is down to its 19th QB – which it apparently is. Michigan’s defense is going to dominate, the run game will dominate, and Brandon Peters will … be Brandon Peters. | Michigan vs. Maryland Game Preview
I bought the idea of a New Jan Brady moment last week when Florida went to Mizzou. Oops. After the disasters of the last few games, the Gators will show up defensively, right? Right? Probably wrong, but go with the under 43.5 – that thing is dropping – in a tight battle, because that’s what South Carolina does. | UF vs. USC Game Preview
Fair Warning: I’ve been way overrating Virginia Tech. I knew it when I picked the upset over Miami that didn’t happen, and I know it now as I’m picking the D to hold down the Georgia Tech offense on the road. The Hokies have allowed 17 points or fewer six times. | VT vs. GT Game Preview
The Tulane rushing attack might be hit or miss, but it gets East Carolina this week. It’ll hit just fine on one of the nation’s worst run defenses. Tulane giving away 5.5 on the road to your sister seems too high, but again, ECU is 123rd in the nation against the run.
Fair Warning, Part 2: Boston College? I’ve been crushing it ATS in the ACC this year, but I totally whiffed on UNC-Pitt and have NO handle whatsoever on BC. NC State is the far better team, and it’s still playing for something – if it gets a few breaks – but if you like the Eagles at home, by all means … NC St vs. BC Game Preview
I know, each and every week I’ve begged you to take UCF and the points no matter what, and last week vs. SMU it was a problem. I know UConn QB Bryant Shirreffs is out, and I know the Huskies might give up 65. But the O will still put up at least 25. Giving up 40.5 is just too obnoxious.
Don’t do Wake Forest – Syracuse. It’s a total toss-up game between two teams with solid quarterbacks and a whole lot of firepower. I’ll go with Syracuse only because it’s at home, but that’s a coin-flip. The 66 points between these two might be high, though. | Wake vs. SU Game Preview
SEE, Penn State fans. SEE what happens when I FINALLY pick the Nittany Lions ATS after getting hammered by you people for weeks? I’m out. Rutgers +31 – this isn’t that awful a Scarlet Knight team, and it’ll play stall ball. | PSU vs. RU Game Preview
We’re all getting suckered into Duke over Army. It’s only Blue Devils -3, and Army hasn’t played another Power Five team outside of Ohio State. The Black Knights made everyone look silly last week against Air Force, but picking the ACC team who really, really needs this win isn’t bad. | Duke vs. Army Game Preview
Just like it seemed just plain wrong to give LSU 21.5 points even if Alabama was a lot better, it’s even just plain wronger – I’m going with that – to give Michigan State 17 against these flaky-ass Buckeyes. Of course Ohio State is 17 points better. Ohio State is about three touchdowns better than Iowa, too. | MSU vs. OSU Game Preview
Indiana needs to stay alive for a possible bowl game, Illinois needs to stay alive to get to next year when all those freshmen Lovie is playing turn into sophomores. The -9 won’t be a problem – the Illinois O won’t move a lick. | IU vs. Illinois Game Preview
Still scarred by missing the Appalachian State-Georgia Southern pick – right on ASU not doing much, wrong that GSU would do nothing – I’m hesitating here. Troy giving away 17 on the road to an emboldened Coastal Carolina team that just hung with Arkansas doesn’t seem right.
Charlotte just played a 6-0 game last week. And lost. Middle Tennessee might not be quite right, but that 12.5 might be nothing, even with QB Hasaan Klugh back for the 49ers.
San Jose State is bad enough to make it seem okay for Nevada to be favored by 18.5, but that’s a big number to give a team with one win. It’s probably right – it’s just a lot.
Fair Warning, Part 3: I just finished an Eggo with peanut butter, melted chocolate chips and whipped cream. My gut-feeling pick here being made under the influence of gooeyness – Baylor to cover, under. Trust the Eggo. | Texas Tech vs. Baylor Game Preview
Kansas State couldn’t stop you throwing a saturated Nerf ball. This pass defense is AWFUL – Will Grier will go bananas … oooh. Bananas. I forgot to add those … KSU vs. WVU Game Preview
After picking Oklahoma State to upset Oklahoma last week, I’m … I’m … doing it again. TCU converts EVERY third down chance against everyone but Iowa State. The D will rise up against Mr. Mayfield, the O will be solid and efficient, and the Big 12 and CFP races will take a big left turn. | TCU vs. OU Game Preview
No, really, how the hell did Iowa State beat both Oklahoma and TCU? On the theory that the Oklahoma State machine will be somewhere in between the Oklahoma firefight and the Texas slugfest, like the Cowboys, but hate the too-high 60.5 total. | OSU vs. ISU Game Preview
Yuuuuuuuuuuck. Louisville might be rested, but giving Virginia 11.5 points? Lamar will be Lamar, but that’s a big ol’ number being handed to a smart passing team vs. a team with no secondary. | UofL vs. UVa Game Preview
Deep breath. In with the good … out with the bad … Notre Dame, and hammer this. Before doing the game preview, my assumption was Miami in a mild upset. But this run defense isn’t good enough, the offense isn’t strong enough, and the Irish NFL offensive line will take over. | ND vs. Miami Game Preview
You can’t count on Navy QB Zach Abey to last, even if he does play. He’s not right, and SMU is getting points. The Mustangs are probably better than the Midshipmen, anyway, and you’re getting a sweetener.
Washington State might be the pick of the week. Utah has a candy corn pass rush that won’t get to Luke Falk, Wazzu’s defense is unbelievable on third downs, and there’s a Pac-12 North to play for against Washington if the Cougars win this. | Wazzu vs. Utah Game Preview
Of course Northwestern vs. Purdue is going into overtime. Whether it does or it doesn’t, the 4.5 the Wildcats are giving up are nothing. The danger – and I’m not kidding, considering NU has played three straight OT games – is that Purdue gets a field goal in OT, and the Cats answer with a Clayton Thorson one-yard plunge to win by three. | NU vs. PU Game Preview
Jordan Ta’amu and the Ole Miss offense is about to go OFF on Louisiana. However, there’s some trepidation after the way Coastal Carolina played Arkansas and UMass hung with Mississippi State. Even so, assume a blowout – Ole Miss has to play each game like a bowl. | Ole Miss vs. ULL Game Preview
What has Minnesota shown to make you believe it can beat anyone but Illinois? Nebraska doesn’t do anything all that well, but Tanner Lee – interceptions and all – will at least throw a bit. The Gophers have no passing game, and the ground attack just isn’t that great. That your getting points is the cherry. | Nebraska vs. Minn Game Preview
It seems so, so tempting to think Mississippi State is about to do something spicy against an overrated Alabama team that just isn’t quite right. The Bulldogs might have nailed LSU with 37 points early this year, but they managed just 13 total against Georgia and Auburn. Hated the 21.5 Bama gave LSU – but went with it, anyway – love the 14.5 giving to cowbell. | Bama vs. MSU Game Preview
You don’t need it, so you’re insane not to sell a kidney to finance Florida Atlantic -4.5 vs. a Louisiana Tech team that lost three of its last four. If the Bulldogs can lose to Southern Miss at home by seven, and to North Texas by one, consider Team Kiffin to be at least ten points stronger. The closest FAU game in conference play? A five point win over Marshall. However, the 70.5 total is stupid high.
Rice hasn’t come closer than 13 points of beating anyone over the last five games. Of course, Southern Miss -10. Of course.
You can’t make a pick happen. It’s either going to be right, or it’s going to be wrong, but just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true. I believe that Colorado’s offense is going to step up and rock at home on Senior Day. Needing a win to go bowling, it’ll come out roaring against USC and … lose. But it’ll ball. | USC vs. Colorado Game Preview
To diametrically opposed theories about to butt heads here. 1) Iowa’s sucky offense really did find something against Ohio State, and that’s more like what the thing really is, vs. 2) Wisconsin was just bored, and it’s about to have one of those “enough is enough” moments and apply an atomic wedgie to this Iowa team that played out of it Ashton Kutcher last week. Or, 3) Wisconsin wins, and America still isn’t convinced. | UW vs. Iowa Game Preview
The world might be overthinking this. Most likely, Georgia really is that good, and so is Auburn, but Georgia really is that much better. It’ll be tight, but there’s a large part of me – that’s my gut talking after pounding those 500 calories and sitting for three hours – that thinks we’ll be looking back at the Georgia -2.5 line as way too obvious. | UGA vs. AU Game Preview
Ohhhhhhhh, no. Missouri. You pick-shamed me last week when I thought Florida was going to rise up in Farout and expose you for being a fraud that put up big numbers against UConn and Idaho. I refuse to be the object of your ridicule and mocking again. We all get it. You can score, and Tennessee can’t. There. Are you happy now? | Mizzou vs. Tennessee Game Preview
To put it another way, Texas A&M, you had better destroy offensively-challenged New Mexico team by far more than the 18. | A&M vs. New Mexico Game Preview
Here’s how much I don’t believe in UCLA. I assumed I picked Arizona State to win, but I had to go back and read what I wrote to remember why I didn’t. This is assuming Josh Rosen doesn’t leave for the NFL after two drives. | UCLA vs. ASU Game Preview
No matter which way you like Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt, it’s going to be close – UK doesn’t know how to play blowout games. Flip a coin and it lands on …. Cats. Close. | UK vs. Vanderbilt Game Preview
Arkansas State is a machine, and it’s rested. South Alabama might be decent at times at home, but don’t worry so much about the 10.5. You do worry too much.
The one time I went in hard against Texas State, it bit me in the bum with a blowout over Coastal Carolina. Again, you can’t make a theory true, you can only try to predict it, but pick Georgia State giving away the points, but be a wee bit careful – it’s Senior Day in San Marcos.
UTEP is going to score 14 points. You know that going in. Now you have to decide whether or not you believe North Texas can put up 37.
Kansas might not score and Texas might hit the 34 all by itself, but that’s still a big number for a Longhorn team that’s challenged when it comes to putting the biscuit in the basket. The team 38 against Baylor – and didn’t cover the 34 – and only got to 40 on Kansas State because it was overtime. The O couldn’t put up more than 24 points in five of the last seven games, but this is Kansas. This is a powerful brand of bad. | Kansas vs. Texas Game Preview
In this week’s episode of Just … Don’t, Marshall -13 seems like it might make sense against a punchless WKU with a banged up QB Mike White, but the Herd offense is hit-or-miss, the Hilltoppers have pulled out a we stunning games here and there and … Just … Don’t.
Old Dominion put up six points against Charlotte, and won. FIU doesn’t have much offensive consistency, but the defense is solid and the it’s on a three game winning streak. the 9.5 shouldn’t be a bother.
UTSA doesn’t put up big numbers, but it’s consistently interesting. UAB has found itself in a streak of four wins in the last five games, with the last two in blowouts. The Roadrunners, though, haven’t allowed more than 14 points in any of their last three games. That’s a long way of saying the 51 total is a wee bit high.
The problem is the Florida State offense. There’s a great chance the Clemson defense rises up and rocks against an FSU O that’s fighting tooth and nail to get points on the board. The Noles haven’t scored more than 28 this year. Here’s the concern – Clemson hasn’t beaten anyone by more than 16 in the last five games. | Clemson vs. FSU Game Preview
The Arkansas offense gets QB Austin Allen back. That should be enough to hit the 55-point total, but assume the dead Hog D can’t slow down the LSU running backs who’ll go nuts. | LSU vs. Arkansas Game Preview
Arizona is at home. Arizona scores a lot of points. Oregon State is on the road. Oregon State doesn’t score a lot of points. The Wildcats should breeze past the 21 if they’re focused. | Arizona vs. OSU Game Preview
For whatever reason, Fresno State doesn’t like to do things easily. D good, O mediocre. In Hawaii, spin the wheel and see if it lands on good Rainbow Warriors or bad Rainbow Warriors. They’re gong to score 21, it just depends on whether or not you think Fresno State can score 32.
And Finally …
If you’re chasing, and you need that late night fix … boom.
Welcome to Christmas in November.
Boise State -6. Colorado State hasn’t won a game by more than six points since beating Hawaii 41-21 on September 30th. Boise State is on a five-game winning streak, beating everyone with ease including Utah State and Nevada both 41-14. The six is mocking you. Calling you. Begging you.