What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 12? Here you go. Enjoy.
Okay, fine. So I whiffed on the really, really big ones, but that was an aberration.
Had I thought about it, no way I would’ve gone with the road team ATS with Michigan State, Alabama, Georgia, TCU and Notre Dame overall, and a few of those here, but I’ll take 5-5 in a disastrous week.
Fortunately, all ten of these are correct. Really.
Of course, these are all just for fun and giggles. So here you go with the ten best picks and predictions against the spread for Week 12.
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 40-39-1
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Starting with five that didn’t quite make the cut, but are still spicy …
Week 12: 10 Best Predictions ATS
10. USC vs. UCLA
Line: USC -16, o/u: 71
ATS PICK: UCLA
This is simply a pick based on rivalry, shootout potential, and Josh Rosen. Ronald Jones and the USC ground game won’t be stopped, but Rosen will keep on bombing for a full four quarters, with a few late scores making this not so embarrassing.
USC has only won three games by more than 16 – Western Michigan late, Oregon State, and Arizona State. UCLA will hold up its end of the bargain.
Line: TCU -7, o/u: 57
ATS PICK: TCU
Don’t fall for the Oklahoma performance. TCU – backfield injuries and all – really is that good, the defense will overcome last week’s clunker, and with the Big 12 Championship and even the CFP still in play, the Horned Frogs will bounce back big.
Line: Wisconsin -7.5, o/u: 39.5
ATS PICK: Wisconsin
There are plenty of things about last week that weren’t for real – but the Wisconsin defense as absolutely not one of them. This defense took things to a whole other level against Iowa, and now it gets a challenged Michigan O that can’t throw the ball.
Yes, the Michigan defense is the truth, but the team has yet to beat anyone that will go bowling. It’s an early start time, but Camp Randall will be rocking.
Line: Mississippi State -12, o/u: 59
ATS PICK: Mississippi State
Will Arkansas find something it hasn’t shown all season long? It has to win out to go bowling, but coming off a 23-point loss to LSU, and with double-digit losses to Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina in SEC play, the team just isn’t good. Hope there’s no Alabama hangover for the Bulldogs.
Line: Georgia -21.5, o/u: 51.5
ATS PICK: Georgia
No, no, no. Don’t start thinking that Georgia was way overrated, or overblown, or overloved. This is a fantastic team at home coming off an embarrassment.
And Kentucky is going to suffer the consequences.
The UK O might have been great against Ole Miss and Vandy, but Georgia’s defense is about to put on a show. Remember, just a few weeks ago the Cats lost at Mississippi State 45-7.
Line: Iowa State -9.5, o/u: 54.5
ATS PICK: Iowa State
There’s no need to overthink this. Iowa State has lost two straight against West Virginia and Oklahoma State, but this is still a rock-solid team with the offense to keep up any pace. Baylor might be jacked up in the home finale, but the team that just lost to Texas Tech by 14 isn’t going to stop what the Cyclones want to do.
Line: Missouri -8.5, o/u: 66.5
ATS PICK: Missouri
Let’s just assume the Missouri offense is going to keep this going. Scoring 68, 52, 45 and 50 over the last four games, and with the defense showing up big – albeit against some awful teams – the team has found something.
Vanderbilt has lost six of the last seven games with the only win over WKU, and it’s defense has gone bye-bye. It’ll be a shootout, but again, Missouri is too hot to ignore.
Line: Boise State -17.5, o/u: 57
ATS PICK: Boise State
Thank you, Boise State miraculous finish to get by Colorado State by more than six points. So let’s just jump right back on.
Air Force can’t stop the run, Alexander Mattison and the Broncos are pounding away, and the Broncos need this. They win, and they’re going to the Mountain West title game. The ground game and D will dominate.
Line: Miami -19, o/u: 50.5
ATS PICK: Virginia
I know, I know. I was burned by picking Virginia Tech over the Canes, and I was really torched by thinking Notre Dame wouldn’t do something insane like try throwing the ball against an amazing D that needs picks to get everyone rolling.
But this is the letdown of letdown moments, and giving away 19 to a team with the defensive talent Virginia has is very, very scary. Can Kurt Benkert avoid throwing a slew of picks? If the Cavaliers can keep the turnovers to two or fewer, they’ll cover.
Line: San Diego State -16.5, o/u: 56
ATS PICK: San Diego State
This is a really, really bad matchup for a Nevada team whose offense has cranked it up, but whose defense is about to be in for a long day.
Here’s the one big concern – San Diego State might be down if Fresno State locks up the West with a win over Wyoming. The Aztecs will know what they’re playing for, but as long as they’re trying, they should roll on a Wolf Pack run D that’s giving up over 200 yards per game.
At home, Rashaad Penny will run wild, the Aztec D will step up after allowing just 14 points in the last two games, and this will be a walk.