10 Best Over/Under Point Total Predictions: Week 10
What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks for point totals and over/unders going into Week 10? Here you go. Enjoy.
I’m not happy. I didn’t get five picks right last week. I got five wrong.
I know, I fall too hard for the possible shootout, but that’s what I do. I work hard, I love hard, I pick hard … that doesn’t sound right.
Fortunately for you, these ten are correct.
Welcome to the point total, over/under picks – the best of the predictions for this week. Which ones are the most obvious to go one way or the other? Here you go.
Top Over/Under Picks So Far: 30-30
Please click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Line: Purdue -14, o/u: 47
These teams don’t appear to be interested in scoring. Purdue has come up with a grand total of 45 points in the last three games, and Illinois scored more than 17 just once in its five Big Ten dates.
Line: Boise State -20.5, o/u: 59
This is all about the Boise State defense. The Nevada offense has finally started to work over the last few weeks, but the Broncos have allowed over 14 points just once in the last six games – the strange clunker against Virginia. No Power Five team has scored more than two touchdowns on Boise all year.
Line: Maryland -3, o/u: 51
Rutgers just doesn’t score. The Scarlet Knights have come up with 17 points or fewer in six of their seven dates against FBS teams. Maryland is coming off a shootout against Indiana, but before that, it scored 21 or fewer in four of its previous five games.
Line: Missouri -3, o/u: 61.5
Really? You think that just because Missouri put up 68 on Idaho and 52 on UConn that it suddenly found something? Welcome to the Gator defense – five of Florida’s seven games fails to get to 61 points.
Even if the O suddenly explodes with Malik Zaire at the helm, that might only mean 40 – the other side should take care of the rest.
6. Rice at UAB
Line: UAB -10.5, o/u: 51.5
Rice has scored more than 12 points just twice all year. Granted, the defense is so awful that the UAB O could handle most of the work by itself, but the last four Blazer games have all easily gone under the 51.5 mark.
Line: Texas Tech -3.5, o/u: 63.5
If I’m going to be the guy who keeps falling for Texas Tech and the over when the total is deep into the 70s, do you really think I’m passing it up at 63.5?
Kansas State has a mediocre pass defense – 418 yards last week to Kansas QB Carter Stanley – and while the Red Raider offense hasn’t lit it up against anyone but Kansas, it’ll put more than 40 on the board by itself. K-State has scored 30 or more in four of its last five games.
Line: Air Force -6, o/u: 54
Air Force has scored 45 points in three of its last four games, including a 48-45 loss to Navy. None of the last five games have come remotely close to being below 54 points.
So Army is the problem, right? Its last four games have blown past the 54 mark, too.
Line: Georgia Tech -9.5, o/u: 49.5
If Boston College and Pitt can run on the Virginia defense, what do you think Georgia Tech will do? The Cavs gave up 41 to the Eagles and 31 to Pitt, and it’s about to give up over 30 to the Yellow Jackets. Tech has allowed 24 or more in each of their last three games. It’ll take a little work, but it’ll get there.
Line: Oklahoma State -1.5, o/u: 76
This will be a 112-105 NBA-like shootout.
76 is a ridiculously high number for any game, but close your eyes and try to envision this as anything other than, say, 44-41, with neither defense able to do much.
No way, no how, no chance this isn’t a wild and crazy throw show between Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph.
Line: UCF -14.5, o/u: 74
What have we learned about UCF? Never, ever, ever be afraid to assume anything less than 50 from its offense. It’ll probably score in the mid-to-high 40s on the road against an okay-not-great SMU defense, but that will be more than enough.
The key is an SMU offense that should do its part.
Yes, Memphis clanked against the Knights in what should’ve been a wild firefight – 40-13 UCF back in September – but at home, SMU should be good for at least 30.
The Mustangs have scored 31 or more against everyone but Houston, including a wild 56-36 loss to TCU.
But you’re still afraid of the 74? Five of SMU’s eight games went into the 70s.