10 Best Over/Under Point Total Predictions: Week 9
What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks for point totals and over/unders going into Week 9? Here you go. Enjoy.
Obviously, college football was wrong last week, because I had these picks right.
Okay, so technically I got way too many wrong, but after going 8-2 the week before, going 3-7 almost evened things out.
This week, I’m assuming college football will shape up, because these ten are correct.
Welcome to the point total, over/under picks – the best of the predictions for this week. Which ones are the most obvious to go one way or the other? Here you go.
Top Over/Under Picks So Far: 25-25
Please click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Five more that look too spicy to ignore.
– Tulane at Memphis 63 OVER
– Texas at Baylor 57 UNDER
– Michigan State at Northwestern 40.5 UNDER
– Texas Tech at Oklahoma 76 OVER
– USC at Arizona State 59 UNDER
10. Tulsa at SMU
Line: SMU -9, o/u: 76.5
That’s just a whole lot of points to score on a Friday night.
SMU has been able to put up big numbers, especially early in the season, and there’s a solid chance against a miserable Tulsa defense that the Mustang O cranks up 50 on its own.
The problem is the Tulsa offense. It went weird against Houston – putting up 45 points two weeks ago – but the total was still low. The Golden Hurricane have failed to score more than 28 points in three of their last four games.
Line: Ohio State -6.5, o/u: 57.5
It’s a little scary that the total has gone up, but this is a straight weather under pick. It’ll be in the low 40s with an 85% chance of rain – it’s possible this game slows down to a crawl.
No Penn State game this year has hit 57.5 points, and Ohio State isn’t hanging 56 on the board like it has over the last few weeks.
Line: Colorado -3.5, o/u: 51.5
Because sheer hubris isn’t running amok enough in this column, I’m going with this because I’m angry at Colorado for not doing what it’s supposed to have done at various times this year.
Alright, Buffs. You’re at home. After getting shut out by Washington State on the road, and after I whiffed picking the over when you played at UCLA, now it’s time for the offense to do the job.
The Cal offense should do its part, scoring 44 last week in the overtime loss to Arizona, and 36 the week before against Wazzu. It’s not going to explode, but it should be good for around 30 points against the mediocre Buff D.
Colorado has scored 37 points or more in three of the four games at home. It’s due to do me a solid.
Line: UTSA -15.5, o/u: 47.5
The UTEP offense hasn’t exactly perked up with Mike Price taking over the head coaching duties. The Miners have scored more than 16 points just once this year, and it’s not going to break out against a fired up UTSA team with a solid defense. The Roadrunners haven’t scored more than 29 in the last three games, and that includes last week’s date against a miserable Rice D.
Line: BYU -11, o/u: 53
Why are you going to take the chance that two of the worst offenses in college football are suddenly going to perk up now that they’re playing each other?
BYU has scored 17 points or fewer in six of the eight games this year, it scored 24 on Utah State, and it only came up with 20 against Portland State.
San Jose State? It scored 26 against Hawaii two weeks ago, but before that it scored 16 points or fewer in its previous five games.
Line: Missouri -13, o/u: 76
That’s a very, very, very big number. But take the chance that the Mizzou offense really has figured it out. It’s not just the 68 points against Idaho last week, the O was solid against Kentucky and Georgia the two weeks before.
Also, take the chance that the Mizzou D is the Mizzou D, giving up 31 points or more in every game but last week against Idaho.
At home, the Connecticut offense should be good for at least 30 points on its own. It’ll be a fight to get up to 76, but if you think Missouri can score more than 40, the total will get there.
Line: Kentucky -4, o/u: 46
Tennessee doesn’t have an offensive touchdown in the last three games, and now it doesn’t have its best offensive player with RB John Kelly out.
Now the Vols have to deal with a solid Kentucky defense looking for a big performance after struggling against Mississippi State – so why do you want to take the chance that this is the week they figure it out?
Kentucky has scored more than 27 just once, and Tennessee has scored a grand total of 53 points in the last five games. It’s a shot worth taking that these two aren’t going to all of a sudden light it up.
3. Boise State at Utah State
Line: Boise State -8, o/u: 50.5
Boise State games have been very, very defensively-tinged over the last few weeks. The last three – even against teams with offenses like Wyoming and San Diego State – have been way, way under 50.
This isn’t an explosive Boise State team, scoring 31 or fewer in six of the seven games so far. Utah State scores on the miserable, but it doesn’t do much against the good defenses.
Line: Purdue -4.5, o/u: 51
I know there are a lot of unders on the list, but like a lot of games in the Big Ten part of the country, the weather isn’t going to be all that great.
The last five Purdue game totals? 26, 23, 48, 38, 38. The Boilermaker offense isn’t exploding, and the defense is keeping scores low, including the 17-9 loss to Wisconsin and the 28-10 loss at Michigan.
Nebraska isn’t scoring, either, with 17 or fewer in three of the last five games, just 28 against Illinois, and 27 against Rutgers.
Line: Washington State -2.5, o/u: 64.5
Here’s your late-night Pac-12 After Dark chaser.
Washington State has a run defense, but Arizona and QB Khalil Tate have taken things to a whole other level.
Arizona doesn’t have much of a pass defense, and Washington State’s Luke Falk and the air show are overdue to crank it up.
It’ll be easy to be skittish after Wazzu beat Colorado 28-0, but the weather was miserable in Pullman. The loss to Cal didn’t help the confidence, but that was an aberration.
Arizona has put up 45 points or more in four of the last five games and in each of the last three. Wildcat games haven’t just hit the 64.5 point mark over the last three, they’ve obliterated it.