10 Best Over/Under Point Total Predictions: Week 8
What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks for point totals and over/unders going into Week 8? Here you go. Enjoy.
Now that’s how this is supposed to work.
After struggling for the first few attempts at this, last week the top over/under picks were 8-2.
That’s still unacceptable. Unless all ten are correct, this piece is an abysmal failure.
Welcome to the point total, over/under picks – the best of the predictions for this week. Which ones are the most obvious to go one way or the other? Here you go.
Top Over/Under Picks So Far: 22-18
Please click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Five more that look too spicy to ignore.
– Idaho at Missouri: Under 62
– Maryland at Wisconsin: Over 50.5
– Troy at Georgia State: Under 49
– Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech: Under 55.5
– Oregon at UCLA: Over 67.5
Line: Central Michigan -2.5, o/u: 47.5
Neither team can score.
Central Michigan hasn’t put up more than 17 points in four of its last five games, and even that fifth game wasn’t an explosion in a 26-23 win over Ohio. A banged up Ball State can’t put up points, either, with a field goal in each of the last two games and with 21 points or fewer in four of the six games on the season.
Line: LSU -6.5, o/u: 59.5
LSU hasn’t been close to being in a 59.5 point game in five of the six games so far, with only the 35-26 win over Syracuse getting past it. The defense has been terrific lately, stuffing Florida two weeks ago and rising up against Auburn last week.
The polar opposite is Ole Miss, who scored 57 points last week against Vanderbilt and whose games have obliterated the 59.5 point mark in five of the six games. But that’s partly because the Alabama and Auburn offense went Alabama and Auburn on the Rebels. LSU’s O won’t do that.
8. UCF at Navy
Line: UCF -8, o/u: 65.5
Let’s just stick with the theory of going with teams with the potential to hit the total all by themselves – or at least to most of the heavy lifting. Alabama is hanging around that territory, Ohio State is there, and UCF is doing its part. It hasn’t scored 65 yet, but it went past 60 twice and 50 one other time.
Navy has scored 42 points or more three times and should be able crank up enough to help get to 65.5 without too much of an issue.
Also among those teams with the ability to carry the mail on its own …
Line: USF -12.5, o/u: 55
South Florida has scored more than 55 once so far, and it cranked out 42 or more in four of the six games. USF games under 55 were because the opposing offenses stunk. At home, Tulane and its option offense should be able to score at least 21 points, and even if it doesn’t, that’s what the USF offense is for.
Speaking of teams that could get the job done on its own …
Line: Alabama 34.5, o/u: 50
Of course, it’s possible Alabama sends a message and cranks up a 50-burger on the Vols. But the more likely scenario is for Alabama to score 48.
And Tennessee gets shut out.
None of the last five Volunteer games have come close to 50 other than the 42-7 win over Indiana State. Considering Tennessee hasn’t scored a touchdown in two games, and it hasn’t put up more than 20 points in the last four. The road game at Alabama isn’t when your offense gets healthy.
Line: Washington State -10, o/u: 52.5
Really? You don’t think after that “pathetic” performance from the Washington State offense in the 37-3 loss to Cal that it’s not about to blow up really, really large? There’s a chance the Colorado offense stalls against a solid Wazzu D, but take the chance that the Buffs will score at least 20 and Luke Falk and company could do the rest. The last two Colorado games hit 87 in a loss to Arizona, and 69 last week in a win over Oregon State.
Line: West Virginia -9, o/u: 69.5
This theory always gets me in trouble – cough, Texas Tech, cough – but sometimes you just have to go with the game with the potential to not only go over, but go over in explosive fashion.
Or maybe the 2013 73-42 Baylor win over West Virginia and the 70-63 Mountaineer win in 2012 are still too fresh.
Four the last five West Virginia games have gone way over 69.5, and the one that didn’t was against TCU. The Mountaineers have scored 56 or more three times, and put up 46 on the Red Raiders last week.
Baylor just got hit by Oklahoma State for 59 and Oklahoma came up with 49. The Bear offense should be good for close to 30 points of the total, and Will Grier will do the rest.
Line: Ohio -18, o/u: 47.5
Kent State is offensively challenged, failing to score more than 17 points in any FCS game. Other than the opener against Clemson – a 56-3 loss – no Kent State game has hit 47.5, and neither will this one.
The danger is Ohio, who just put up 48 on Bowling Green and scored 58 on UMass a few weeks ago. But Kent State, for all of its problems, can play a little defense and should keep this relatively low.
Line: Auburn -15.5, o/u: 52.5
Don’t worry about the collapse against LSU – Auburn’s offense will roll again this week.
The Tigers hung up 44 on the board in the three games before the trip to Death Valley, obliterating the 52.5 point total in the three. Arkansas doesn’t have the defense to hold the Tigers to under 40, allowing 41 or more in all three SEC games.
The Hogs have scored 22 or more on everyone but TCU and Alabama – allegedly, those two are pretty good. Combine the possibility of the desperate Hog O putting up a few big scores on its own, and the potential of Auburn – if it goes off – of scoring 50, and the over shouldn’t be an issue.
Line: Northern Illinois -14, o/u: 54.5
It’s never fun to go big on the under, especially when one of the teams has has rolled past the 54.5 in five of the last six games, but the Northern Illinois defense is the best in the MAC, and the O isn’t all that great.
Bowling Green, though, has been involved in plenty of shootouts outside of the two losses to the Big Ten teams on the slate. The offense has found a groove over the last two weeks scoring 37 on Miami University and 30 on Ohio, but here comes the NIU D.
Only one Huskie game – the 34-28 loss to San Diego State – has gone over 54.5. Northern Illinois has allowed 17 points or fewer in four of the last five games – including the win over Nebraska – and now it should be able to shut down the Falcons cold.