Week 3 Final Thoughts & Investment Advice: Saturday
Here’s the problem when you put so many massive matchups in Week 1. It seems like a good idea, but then you have a week like … this.
Every college football game is beautiful in its own way, but wouldn’t it be better if some of the paycheck warm-ups got out of the way in the opener and then this was the week we’d get Alabama-Florida State or West Virginia-Virginia Tech?
With no Miami-Florida State, the marquee game now is Clemson-Louisville or Texas-USC. That’s fine, but it’s not like the Gameapalooza of choices from last Saturday night.
But, of course, your retirement fund doesn’t care if it’s Oklahoma-Ohio State or Troy-New Mexico State playing.
This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only, however, just in case you dabble …
Full disclosure: I’m an unabashed Will Muschamp apologist. So I can’t necessarily criticize how the sausage is being made in two under-the-radar big wins, and then eat it anyway. After picking against the Gamecocks in the first two weeks, they’d better be all in against a mediocre UK squad that isn’t clicking. | South Carolina vs. Kentucky Preview
Kent … State … Doesn’t … Score. Marshall isn’t a fireworks factory, either, but the 14 at home is a present.
Let’s put it another way, Brian Kelly. If your Irish team doesn’t annihilate a bad Boston College team that was just rolled by Wake Forest, consider that the suddenly-infamous post-Georgia “snowball” problem. | Notre Dame vs. BC Preview
Sometimes you don’t know what you don’t know. I don’t know if Virginia is 10.5 points better than a bag of Funyuns, much less a UConn team that might bring a little D to Charlottesville. | UConn vs. Virginia Preview
The Michigan-Air Force point total has sunk like a rock. People must be scared of the Wolverine defense being able to hit the curve and holding the Falcons to zip-a-dee-do-da. But any time you have a team like Michigan that, if things get rolling, could hang the number on its own – it’s now at 49 – the over is a chance worth taking. | Michigan vs. Air Force Preview
Coastal Carolina might not be that bad. It rolled UMass without breathing hard, but you and a few friends could do that. Even on the road, giving up just one to UAB might be way too obvious. It’s possible I’m not taking into account the Blazermania excitement that’s sweeping America.
It’s the wrong pick, and I’m well aware of it, but Miami University shouldn’t be five points better than Cincinnati. It’s a rivalry game, and neither team will score a ton.
Allow for the possibility that Pitt isn’t good, and Penn State’s win last week wasn’t as impressive as it was made out to be. The Nittany Lions get up early on Georgia State, and then foot, gas, off. This could be the sucker play with so much PSU love out there at the moment – better to stay away from the 37. | Penn State vs. Georgia State Preview
It’s never fun to judge heartbreak. If Iowa State got over gagging away the Iowa game, it should have an easy time at Akron. To the Cyclones, it will feel like beating Pitt. | Iowa State vs. Akron Preview
Okay, so here’s the problem. North Carolina is a whole lot better than Old Dominion, but the Monarchs get the big boy in their house – and they have a defense. At some point, though, the Tar Heels are going to wake up and start playing. I’m confused, if you can’t tell … | UNC vs. ODU Preview
Enough. I’m sorry. Time to own it already and make a definitive call. Oklahoma State is two touchdowns better than Pitt. That Panther secondary is about to get royally roasted by Mason Rudolph and company. | OSU vs. Pitt Preview
Minnesota looks spicy after destroying Oregon State on the road, but Middle Tennessee just handed Syracuse a home loss. The Blue Raiders play enough D to handle the double-digit dog sandwich they were handed. | MTSU vs. Minnesota Preview
Love, love, love, Josh Rosen. Hate, hate, hate this Memphis game. It’s WAY early for UCLA internal clocks, the Tigers are rested, and they can run the ball. Lost in the amazing Rosen start is how the Bruins are Rosen-mustache awful against the run. | UCLA vs. Memphis Preview
Nebraska is way too flaky. If you have to go with the two touchdowns over Northern Illinois, good luck to you. No, really, if you can figure out which Husker team will show up, knock it out. | Nebraska vs. NIU Preview
Speaking of anything with the word Husker in it, sky point to Grant Hart.
There are certain picks I’ll have no problem with if they’re wrong, mainly because there’s absolutely no rational reason to go the other way. At the immediate moment, there’s absolutely no rational reason to think Baylor can stay within two touchdowns of Duke. | Baylor vs. Duke Preview
Here’s the deal, Kansas. I know you’re bad, and you know you’re bad, but you can throw the ball, and Ohio can’t. So how’s this? You’re going to lose to a MAC team for a second week in a row, but you’ll do it by fewer than eight points. Cool? | Kansas vs. Ohio Preview
Wake Forest giving up 12.5 to Kent Myers and Utah State? No likey. At the end of the day, it’s still Wake Forest – it hasn’t earned the big-spread-favorite card, even after the Boston College blowout. 11.5? Okay, fine. | Wake Forest vs. Utah State Preview
Alright, let’s do this. Last week I said that the only way Oklahoma would beat Ohio State is if Baker Mayfield put together a Heisman-winning day. And he did. However, even though I picked the Buckeyes, I liked OU with the spread and thought it was possible the world might be sleeping on an outright win.
I don’t think I’m missing anything with Lamar Jackson going against Clemson.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, new season, new teams, new guys, but visions of 2016 LSU and Houston sitting on Jackson for a full four quarters are too fresh. Give me the NFL defensive front that’s fully trained to stop one guy. | Clemson vs. Louisville Preview
Really, investment community? Did you not see Syracuse play Middle Tennessee? Did you not see Shane Morris and Central Michigan light up Kansas on the road? I’m cool with the Orange winning this at home, but by ten? You insult me. | CMU vs. Syracuse Preview
I’m actually asking this and not being snarky. Outside of the local flavor, explain why East Carolina doesn’t really, really suck, and why it should come within a mile of hanging around with Virginia Tech. However, if you want to sell the Virginia Tech Used To Occasionally Be Flaky factor, I might buy … but not really. | ECU vs. VT Preview
This Wisconsin love in this BYU game is getting out of hand. Weird things happen in Provo, and that Utah game was scary. The Cougars were totally and completely dominated by the Utes, and yet it was still relatively close late. BYU has the linebackers and run D to keep this tight. I hated the Badgers at 13, but now you’re giving 17?! Okey dokie. | Wisconsin vs. BYU Preview
Sometimes, you invest just to have some fun with it. 77 is a GIGANTIC number for any game, but go ahead. I don’t think Purdue and Missouri will combine to hit it, but it will be a blast watching them try.
I’m buying into the Boilermakers. Before, they were bad and lost without an issue. Now this might be one of those teams that’s bad, but figures it out. | Purdue vs. Mizzou Preview
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, over on the Iowa-North Texas 53.5, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, SMU hung 54 by itself on the Mean Green last week, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes … (deep breath) … | Iowa vs. UNT Preview
YES, YES, YES, YES, YES, YES, Texas A&M-Lousiana point total at just 61.5?!, YES, YES, YES, YES, YES, the Aggies will account for at least 50 on their own, YES, YES, YES, YES, Tulsa scored 66 on the Ragin’ Cajuns, YES, YES don’t be scared by Nicholls State, YES, YES … | Texas A&M vs. ULL Preview
Let’s just assume that Bowling Green is really that bad, and Northwestern will roll. Now we can get on with our day. | BGSU vs. NW Preview
Tulane might be just quirky enough to cover the 35.5 against Oklahoma. The Sooners will put up 40ish; it’s just a question of whether or not the Green Wave will score. | Oklahoma vs. Tulane Preview
Is it possible to pick against both Tennessee and Florida? Butch Jones and Jim McElwain are two successfully mediocre coaches who do just enough to stay alive and provide hope. But what is this Florida team? Is Tennessee any good? I’m going with Florida on a total guess that Feleipe Franks is about to be great – but it’ll be tight. | Florida vs. Tennessee Preview
SMU has been terrific so far, but TCU might just be the best team no one is talking about. This defense is back, while Kenny Hill has been fine. The Horned Frogs will pound the Mustangs. | SMU vs. TCU Preview
Isn’t Louisiana Tech vs. WKU supposed to be the Conference USA game of the year? It doesn’t feel like it. The Hilltoppers aren’t the same as last year’s version – seven points might be a lot to give up. The Bulldogs should win this outright.
No, don’t try to read Ohio State right now. Army is quirky and could easily make a mockery of the 30.5 if the O is working, or the Buckeyes might kick something into high gear and put 65 on the board. Stay away from the unknown. | Ohio State vs. Army Preview
Ugh. The Oregon State-Wazzu line jumped now that Luke Falk is starting. Liked it at 19, souring at 21. I’m not sure why. The Cougars are going to destroy a miserable Beaver squad that can’t get to the quarterback. | OSU vs. Wazzu Preview
A word of caution when it comes to Alabama. It’s going to beat Colorado State with ease, but no one throttles back in a blowout like the Crimson Tide do. The Rams might not score, but the 28.5 might not be the breeze you think it is. | Alabama vs. Colorado State Preview
The Toledo offense hasn’t quite done what it’s supposed to, but you’re going to kick yourself if you don’t go over on the 67.5 total vs. Tulsa.
There’s a very good chance Wyoming just isn’t that good. Josh Allen is Josh Allen, but Oregon QB Justin Hebert will have the better game. | Oregon vs. Wyoming Preview
I’ve been told by two separate degenerates that Mississippi State is the upset pick of the week, getting 7.5 at home vs. LSU. The Tigers are getting Arden Key back. Ain’t no cowbell ’bout to ring. | LSU vs. MSU Preview
Let me put it this way. The team that wins the time of possession battle will win the game. Kansas State will have the ball for a few seconds more than Vanderbilt. | Kansas State vs. Vanderbilt Preview
Don’t fall for it. I know in theory that the Texas Tech vs. Arizona State over should be astronomical, but the Sun Devils don’t have the O. 76.5 is probably about five points too high, even if this does get into a shootout. | ASU vs. Texas Tech Preview
San Jose State will play better than it did at Texas, and Utah won’t put up massive numbers. The 26.5 are way too many. | Utah vs. SJSU Preview
Gut feeling – Washington isn’t going to want to totally destroy Jeff Tedford. The Huskies are going to beat Fresno State with ease, but mutual coaching respect will keep this from getting ridiculous. UW will shut it down in the second half. | UW vs. Fresno State Preview
Sort of digging on this Cal team because of its adaptability, especially catching points at home to Ole Miss. The 71 total seems way high, too – this isn’t the Cal of last year. | Cal vs. Ole Miss Preview
I have to get over my USC issue. Just when I really, really don’t think this team is all that amazing, it goes out and does that to Stanford. I whiffed on that pick, and now I’m nervous that everyone is jumping on Texas.
The line went from 17.5 down to 15.5 after 1) everyone woke up to what a shootout this will be and 2) the Tom Herman stat that he never lost as an underdog at Houston or as the OC at Ohio State.
Maybe, just maybe, I’m right that USC isn’t that great and Stanford sort of stinks.
Nah, but the Aztec defense at home should be a problem, and RB Rashaad Penny is having the best start to the season by anyone not named Rosen, Mayfield or Jackson. I’m still taking Stanford and giving up the 9.5, but that’s not the surest of things.
The bounce back is coming for the Cardinal – and not just to justify my bad pick of them beating USC last week. | Stanford vs. SDSU Preview