Boise State has yet to do anything remotely interesting, other than meltdown against Washington State, of course. Virginia can wing the ball around the yard just enough to keep it closer than the 13. This isn’t your younger and pretty you version of Boise State – it’ll give up yards. | Boise State vs. Virginia Preview

Utah is starting to throw the ball better than it has in a long, long time, with two straight 300-yard games – a rarity in the Kyle Whittingham era. The Arizona offense at home on a Friday night is always going to be an X factor, but the Ute D will be the Ute D when it has to. | Utah vs. Arizona Preview

Duke is a better team than North Carolina. The defense is better. The offense is playing great. QB Daniel Jones is a rising star. The wins have been there in a great start … and North Carolina will win, anyway. This rivalry game sometimes makes no sense. | Duke vs. UNC Preview

Appalachian State playing at home against a generic-branded Power Five team might normally be a problem, but it’s not like Wake Forest is going across the country – it’s just up the road about 90 minutes or so. Rock-solid so far, the Demon Deacons are being insulted. Just five points? Yippee. The line should be at least ten. | Wake Forest vs. ASU Preview

Big Boy Pants Game No. 1. No one wants to buy in, but if I told you before the season that Michigan  – after losing a bajillion starters – would start the season 3-0 with all three wins by double-digits, you’d be impressed. Don’t worry how it all looked so far.

Do this – for me. Close your eyes, take a deep breath, clear your thoughts. Now tell me, the team that threw two pick-sixes and beat Florida by 16 is only going to beat Purdue – THE PURDUE, BOILERMAKERS – by ten? You could make this Michigan -20 and it would still be too light. | Michigan vs. Purdue Preview

Pitt is bad, Georgia Tech isn’t. The Yellow Jackets are also rested. Don’t make this more difficult than it has to be. | Georgia Tech vs. Pitt Preview

I will totally admit that Penn State is amazing and worthy of all the hype and big love if it rolls out of Iowa City with a dominant win. Iowa is going to muck this up and be great on the lines as it wins this outright. If someone wants to give you 13 points … sure. Much obliged. | Iowa vs. Penn State Preview

No, no, no on Florida State. New quarterback, fired up NC State team, good Wolf Pack defensive line, veteran offense, team that hasn’t played in weeks … no, no, no. Stay away. But you won’t, so even with all of the X factors, 1) the defenses will keep the scoring low, and 2) 12.5 is a whole lot to give up to a team with NC State’s D line. | NC State vs. FSU Preview

Never Give Away That Many Points No Matter What, ACC Game of the Week: Round 1: But take Clemson and the 34 over Boston College, anyway. The Tigers are due for a letdown, but they’ve been a cover machine. The -3 line vs. Louisville last week was a twisted joke. | Clemson vs. BC Preview

Never Give Away That Many Points No Matter What, ACC Game of the Week: Round 2: Theme for this piece on a weekly basis. Kent … State … Doesn’t … Score. And against Marshall last week, it didn’t. Even so, don’t give away 44 points to anyone. Ever. Especially to a mediocre Louisville team that could hang 55 on the board and not cover. | Louisville vs. Kent State Preview

Big Boy Pants Game No. 2. You take the team with the true freshman quarterback going against a red hot defense. I’ll take the team with Nick Fitzgerald. That the line is Georgia by only -4.5 is scary, but cowbell is winning this. | MSU vs. Georgia Preview

It’s not a guarantee that this Deebo Samuel-less South Carolina team can score nine points, much less be favored by more than that against a good-enough Louisiana Tech. The 53 point total seems like a big number by about ten. | USC vs. Louisiana Tech Preview

UMass is just quirky enough to score ten fourth quarter points to cover the Tennessee -28. The Vols will blow up early, and coast late. Pay attention to the second half line – the Minutemen will beat it. | UMass vs. Tennessee Preview

I’m actually feel sorry for those on the wrong side of West Virginia -20 against a miserable Kansas team. Let me put it this way. The Jayhawks lost to Central Michigan by 18 at home. It’s raining Mountain Men … hallelujah. | WVU vs. Kansas Preview

The SEC voices who always bother me swear this is the year the streak going back to 1986 ends … but of course Florida is beating Kentucky. If this really is the year the Wildcats finally win this, whatever. Chalk it up to things larger than the tangible world. | UK vs. Florida Preview

Maryland only giving up four to UCF at home? Like Florida-Kentucky, that falls into the even-if-it-doesn’t-work-it’s-the-right-play category. | UCF vs. Maryland Preview

Eastern Michigan has been one team I’ve totally whiffed on so far. So now you’re only giving away -2.5 to Ohio? The Bobcats are better, but EMU, you have me, honey. I’m yours. Don’t hurt me.

There’s no real justifiable reason for this, but 28 is a lot to give up if you’re Virginia Tech vs. Old Dominion. The Monarchs will crank up a few late scores after the Hokies spend most of three quarters coasting. | VT vs. ODU Preview

Oh, you’re not really thinking about Georgia State vs. Charlotte, are you? Back away from the table … however, considering these might be the two worst teams in the FBS, and it’s a pick, go with the home 49ers.

Don’t listen to me on Indiana-Georgia Southern. I’ve got a weird infatuation with the Eagles, and they’re just not very good at this college football thing. GSU will cover, but again, do NOT listen to me. You’re listening to me. Fine, I blame you for your loss. | IU vs. GSU Preview

I’m convinced that Florida Atlantic is only a three point dog to Buffalo because of Lane Kiffin’s name. The Bulls will roll at home. Mmmmm, roll.

AD schmaAD. Nebraska should beat Rutgers by more than 12.5 points. A lot more. However, the Scarlet Knights are so boring they might grind this down by holding on to the ball for 59 minutes. With that said, 47 between these two seems way, WAY low. | Nebraska vs. Rutgers Preview

Not to beat a dead theme when it comes to the hurricane teams, but do you have any clue what type of Miami squad will show up? I like absolutely nothing about Miami -13.5 on either side – tell a story, and you probably have it right. | Miami vs. Toledo Preview

Washington has played and beaten no one, the Colorado defense is the real deal, Washington still might be the best team in the Pac-12, the Buffs are going to be jacked up at home, the Huskies take a while to find their consistency … but … but … be careful of giving away 11.5 points to a CU team with this D at home. | Colorado vs. Washington Preview

New Mexico State -20 over UTEP is absolutely the right call, except for one thing: it’s New Mexico State. UTEP is awful, but it’s a neighbor rivalry type of game. If you take the Aggies and lose, you were warned.

Cincinnati doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Navy. But it’ll be a tight game – I keep saying that with Luke Fickell. I think the Bearcats are far better than they actually are, and I have no idea why. | UC vs. Navy Preview

Please, don’t mess around with Notre Dame-Michigan State. We still aren’t quite sure what type of Spartan team this is, and the Irish just might be explosive enough to make this a blowout – or they’ll go Georgia game and have problems getting going. Good luck guessing on which version will show up. If you have to, take the Irish – they have the better O. | ND vs. MSU Preview

Based on absolutely nothing, Wyoming and Josh Allen are overdue for a solid performance against an FBS team. It’ll be a bit of a firefight, but they’ll beat Hawaii by a touchdown. | UW vs. Hawaii Preview

Can New Mexico hang with Tulsa? The Lobos are playing a third-string quarterback, but you could throw at will on the lousy Golden Hurricane D. The two teams will combine for 500 rushing yards. | New Mexico vs. Tulsa Preview

Really? You think not facing Derrius Guice will mean Syracuse will score on this angry D? If you liked LSU -23.5, then love it at -21. | LSU vs. Syracuse

Even if QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James can’t go, at home, Middle Tennessee will still beat Bowling Green by a ton. That it’s only -7 is a mint on the pillow.

Seriously? Purdue … Purdue … just beat Missouri by 32 in Columbia, and you’re waffling on Auburn giving away 18?! What’s the matter with you? We’ve got to smarten this kid up. | Auburn vs. Missouri Preview

It’s always dangerous to ever go low on Texas Tech, but that 71-point total might be way, way high vs. Houston. Watch out for the Cougars to come up with something special in a statement moment for the Major Applewhite regime. | Houston vs. Texas Tech

FIRE, FIRE, FIRE … get away, don’t touch it. SMU -5.5 vs. Arkansas State … yeesh. Let it roll. It’ll put itself out. That thing could to either way. | SMU vs. ASU Preview

Big Boy Pants Game No. 3. Alabama has a brutally honesty way of crushing the hopes, dreams, and spirits of teams and fan bases who think they’re on the verge of doing something interesting. It’s Alabama vs. Vanderbilt. You know exactly what to do. | Bama vs. Vandy Preview

Is it me? Army the underdog at Tulane, when the two do the same things, only the Knight do them better? It’s me, right? | Army vs. Tulane Preview

The world is sleeping on just how good TCU is – and just how much of a nothing-burger schedule Oklahoma State has played so far. TCU could win this outright. That it’s getting 13 points is like being handed free bacon. And that 71.5 total? With this TCU D? Nope. That’s big by at least seven points, maybe ten. | TCU vs. OSU Preview

Air Force is good, but San Diego State wins on the road because Christian Chapman can throw, and Arion Worthman can’t. When the Falcons need to push the ball down the field, they won’t be able to. | SDSU vs. Air Force Preview

Just like Florida vs. Tennessee, it’ll be a shame that one team will have to win Arkansas vs. Tennessee. I have a weird thing for the Hogs – they should be better than they are. However, sort of like taking Miss State over Georgia because of the veteran QB over true freshman QB theory, Arkansas has Austin Allen, Texas A&M has Kellen Mond. The vet gets it done on the road. | Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Preview

Oklahoma only giving Baylor 27.5? Oh that has to be a misprint … refresh … nope. Refresh … nope. Refresh … 27.5 it is. And that 63 total? Refresh … nope. Refresh … nope. OU could get that by itself. | Baylor vs. OU Preview

Big Boy Pants Game No. 4. Whatever you want to believe about USC vs. Cal, you might be right. I’ll take USC -17, but here’s the problem. Texas hasn’t tackled anyone in three years, and suddenly, it’s a rock against USC? This Trojan team is flake-EY. | USC vs. Cal Preview

Nevada is really, really, really, really, really bad. I know, banking on anything Washington State does is a problem. But at home, the 28 won’t be an issue, and the 67.5 total might be blown past in the early third. | Wazzu vs. Nevada Preview

Utah State is the much, much better team than San Jose State, and it’s a pick ’em. The line should be Aggies -7. Hey, not a problem. You’d do the same for me. | SJSU vs. Utah State

Arizona State is desperate, Oregon’s defense is mediocre, and you want to give the Sun Devils 14.5 points at home? … yoink. | ASU vs. Oregon Preview

And Finally … 

I’d like to formally apologize to you, your family, and all the fine folk down there at the diner for totally and completely wussing out on picking San Diego State over Stanford last week.

I’m 0-for-3 ATS on the Cardinal so far, but this machine is due to pay off.

1) Whatever the Stanford rushing total prop is against UCLA, it’ll run for more, 2) at home, it’ll be a total wipeout – the seven the Cardinal are giving away will be loose change, and 3) the game will go over the 58 without breathing hard. | Stanford vs. UCLA

And as an added bonus … Sunday football. East Carolina is just so, so horrible. If you’re chasing … ride the Huskies. | ECU vs. UConn Preview