2017 Week 1 College Football Final Thoughts, Predictions & Investment Advice: Saturday
The final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice to make your life a heck of a lot better than it currently is.
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Week 1 Final Thoughts & Investment Advice: Saturday
This whole slow rollout of the 2017 college football season has been cute.
We’ve had some laughs and killed some time, but enough of the pleasantries and witty banter. Enough trying to pump up a slew of meh games because we’re all desperate for the fun to get going.
Let’s go fishing.
This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only, however, just in case you dabble …
Yes, the Seminole O line is an issue – the Alabama game isn’t the time to try jelling – but the secondary is absurdly talented and should be a factor.
The FSU game isn’t the time to try improving your passing attack.
It wouldn’t be a shocker in any way if if we’re talking next week about a Florida State win. The speed is there, the talent is there, and the pieces are there to win this and roll through the Tide on the way to the national title. However …
America, allow me to reintroduce you to Bo Scarbrough.
Bama will be more physical, tougher, and will wear down the Noles in the second half.
Blow off whatever happens in the first quarter. This will be a long, long game that’ll be a war of attrition before the Crimson Tide lines win it.
By more than seven. Memories of Alabama making USC cry are too fresh. | Alabama vs. FSU
Rapid fire time to get in as many games as possible. I promise more entertainment, jocularity, and wacky madcap hijinks next week …
Be careful of Bowling Green getting its offensive groove back, but Michigan State plows through with a statement win. With ease. | MSU vs. BGSU
Really? Josh Allen is supposedly the next Cam Newton? Not in Iowa City. Let me put it this way. If Iowa’s defense and running games play like they’re supposed to, winning by 12 won’t be an issue. | Iowa vs. Wyoming
Stay away, stay away, stay away from Miami University vs. Marshall. Too many X factors, too many unknowns, too many concerns. But if you have to, MU – the C-USA version – by -2.5.
Really? What are you doing thinking about investing in at UMass vs. Coastal Carolina? Shame on you. Do something constructive, like looking at porn while eating Pop Rocks.
30.5 is a LOT, even for Penn State against an Akron team that might just have a wee bit of a defense. However, that 65.5 over seems a wee bit light. | Penn State vs. Akron
Speaking of being way, way off, if you need me to tell you what to do with the 68.5 over/under on Louisville vs. Purdue, I can’t help you.
Arkansas State is good enough to win the Sun Belt, but gut feeling, Nebraska is going to come out and rip the Red Wolves to shreds. In a first weekend of strangely way, way low over/unders, 47? Really? Mazel Tov. | Nebraska vs. Arkansas State
BTW, America, welcome to Nebraska QB Tanner Lee.
I have no earthly clue if this Nevada Air Raid offense is going to work or not. But I do know that Northwestern is about to go batspit on a miserable Wolf Pack D. The two teams will combine for over 100 throws – and LOTS of points. | Nevada vs. Northwestern
With or without the dopey, outdated war chant thing that’s mercifully going away, Illinois had better beat Ball State by more than 6.5, or it’s going to be a long, long season. | Illinois vs. Ball State
If you really believe that Oklahoma will beat UTEP by more than 43, then you also believe that the two will combine for way over 63 points. | Oklahoma vs. UTEP
Even though I gutlessly tapped out and didn’t pick it in the game preview, if I had to be pinned down to pick an upset this week – and I have on various radio shows – watch out for Cal vs. North Carolina. Cal is a wild card, but if it can finally tackle, it should be able to hang for a full four quarters – or at least cover the 12.5.
Don’t be that guy. Considering all the drama and all the weirdness of the last several months, don’t mess around with Ole Miss in any way until you see what kind of team shows up. Throw in the South Alabama upsets of Miss State and San Diego State last year, and … don’t be that guy. | Ole Miss vs. South Alabama
I don’t believe in USC. I’ve been hurt before. Of course, Sam Darnold is great. Of course, there’s athleticism and talent. Of course, the hype is off the charts because everyone is desperate for the program to be U-S-C again. Of course, USC will obliterate Western Michigan by more than 27.5. | USC vs. Western Michigan
Did Texas all of a sudden learn how to tackle? Did it get that much better after losing to Kansas late last season? The talent is there, the program has the coach it’s been drooling over, and Maryland is still a few years away from being a player. However …
This game stinks. Come up with your scenario, and you’ve probably got it. Texas could come out serious and roll with ease, Maryland could all of a sudden find the offensive pop, the Longhorns could go all Houston vs. OU/Louisville.
Fine. Enough wishy-washy, mealy-mouthed, hemming and hawing … Terps are covering the 19. | Maryland vs. Texas
I’m sorry. I know you don’t like it. I know you don’t believe it. I know you don’t want it. But Notre Dame’s offense is going to be terrific. Give it about a half, and then … kaboom. It’ll take a while to get to the mark, but beating Temple by 19 won’t be an issue by the fourth quarter. | Notre Dame vs. Temple
Okay. Work with me here. It’s not going to happen. However, if I stare at the Georgia Southern vs. Auburn game long enough, and unfocused my eyes, I can see the shocker. It’s a big, giant, flaming, firework-shooting if, but IF Auburn can’t hit the curveball, uh-oh.
Of course Auburn is a gajillion times better. Of course it has more talent. Of course the offense should rip apart the Eagles at will. Of course, if the defense has it figured out and the linebackers can stay in their lanes, everything will be fine. But the Eagles are going to run this warp-speed triple-option thing that might just make that 34.5 point spread look like a sick and twisted joke.
The 59.5 point over/under might be light by about 20 points. Auburn’s offense might hit that all by itself. | Auburn vs. Georgia Southern
I have no idea what kind of Kentucky team is about to show up. But I do know that Southern Miss has an offense, and – broken record time – the over is way, way, way low.
Last year, the two teams combined to put up 79 points. And you’re trying to sell me on 57? Have you gone mad, Basil? | Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
I’ve been calling it for six months, and I’m not getting off of it now. NC State, you had better be the real deal, because I’ve carried a ton of water for you on this South Carolina game.
However, even though I think State wins, it could be 17-13 in a defensive struggle. That -5 seems big, even as confident as I am in the Pack. | NC State vs. South Carolina
Yeah, Middle Tennessee might win Conference USA, and yeah, it has an offense. But if someone is telling you an SEC team is just a three-point favorite against a Group of Five team, you have to give it a shot. Even if that SEC team is Vanderbilt. | Vanderbilt vs. Southern Miss
I don’t like anything about Troy vs. Boise State. Troy has a dangerous enough offense to sneak in late with a few quirky scores, but the Broncos could also go off and suddenly look the part again.
Of course, that doesn’t help you. Boise State by two touchdowns. | Boise State vs. Troy
I LOVED Michigan. This has been my relative sleeper College Football Playoff call all offseason, I think the team is about to reload and rock, and I think it’s being way underappreciated, even though it’s ranked around the top ten. But for some reason, now I’m scared.
I’m scared the Gators are about to rally around the adversity. I’m scared that Jim McElwain finally figured out that Feleipe Franks has the potential to be magnificent. I’m scared that this now seems too easy, but the Florida D is about to pitch a gem.
I’ll still have to go with Michigan -4.5 because I have to, but I have several low friends in high places swearing that Florida wins this. | Michigan vs. Florida
AND FINALLY … give it a shot.
If you think you have a trend spotted, or you think you know just enough to be slightly better than the average jamoke, invest the same amount on every game, and don’t flinch.
Don’t go heavy on one game because you “know something” and then light on others. Slow and steady wins the race.
With that in mind, I’ll track it. If I was in Vegas this weekend – I don’t actually gamble, except when I order chicken subgum from down the street – I’d put a small amount down on the overs of every game.
If the current trend holds, and these lines really are that off, 60% might just be possible.
I’ll track all this tomorrow and put up the results for the Final Thoughts for Sunday and Monday.