Toledo vs. Appalachian State: Dollar General Bowl Prediction, Game Preview

Toledo vs. Appalachian State: Dollar General Bowl Prediction, Game Preview

Toledo

Toledo vs. Appalachian State: Dollar General Bowl Prediction, Game Preview


Three reasons why you should watch the Dollar General Bowl, why each team might win, honest thoughts, line and prediction.


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Dollar General Bowl
Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian St (8-4)

Broadcast

Date: Saturday, Dec. 23
Game Time: 7:00 pm
Venue: Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
Network: ESPN

Contact/Follow @PeteFiutak

The Bowl Matchup Ranking Of Awesomeness
(1 best-39 worst): 
24 out of 39

2017-2018 Bowl Central: Schedules, Picks, Love
CFN Expert Consensus Confidence Picks

Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Dollar General Bowl

It’s champion on champion action. It’s a Group of Five power showdown with the MAC champ vs. the co-Sun Belt champ – the conferences are going to care. No, it doesn’t matter in the greater scheme of the planet if the MAC has bragging rights over the Sun Belt – or vice versa – but it’ll be a nice feather in the cap for one of the leagues. In terms of matchups, it’s a good one.

These two did this last year in the Camellia, with Appalachian State beating Toledo 31-28. The Mountaineers have stepped up in their first two bowl games – at least the ones the NCAA cares about – beating Ohio in 2015 and then the Rockets. Apparently, head coach Scott Satterfield knows how to get his team up for these things, and he has a veteran team good enough to make it three in a row.

Just assume at least 1,000 yards of total offense. Both teams have a little bit of a defense, but if these two open it up, it should be a blast. Toledo is a 500-yard machine just about everyone time out, and while Appalachian State likes to grind things out a bit, it can open it up, too. As the last bowl game on a Saturday night, it should be worth the effort.

Here’s Why Appalachian State Will Win The Dollar General Bowl

This might not be the most dynamic team, but it manages to get by on turnovers – it doesn’t give them away. The Mountaineers have turned it over just 14 times on the year finishing in the negative just twice – it didn’t matter against Savannah State, and it blew out Georgia State. Toledo likely won’t get any cheap points.

The offensive line has been fantastic. The running game is solid – it was one of the Sun Belt’s best – and the pass protection is outstanding. This is a rock-solid front five that should give QB Taylor Lamb all the time he could want against a mediocre Toledo pass rush.

Toledo is one of the few teams that commits more penalties than ASU does. The Mountaineers get flagged way too often, getting hit for just over seven a game for around 67 yards. Toledo sins almost eight times a game losing over 70 yards. As long as Appalachian State’s penalty problems even out, it’ll be happy.

Here’s Why Toledo Will Win The Dollar General Bowl

It’s Logan Woodside’s final game. Watch out. One of the nation’s top statistical quarterbacks over the last few seasons, Woodside put up terrific numbers again, hitting 65% of his passes for 3,758 yards and 28 touchdowns with five picks. It wasn’t the 45 touchdown performance of last year, but he’s got a MAC Championship this time around.

The Appalachian State offense works against the Sun Belters, but it fizzled against Georgia and Wake Forest. Toledo’s defense is hardly a rock, but the Mountaineer offense isn’t quite explosive enough to keep up if the Rocket O gets rolling. The ASU passing game is solid, and efficient, but it’s not going to explode.

The Appalachian State punting game stinks – at least when it comes to net yards. It’s functional, but it might have a problem against Danzel McKinley-Lewis, one of the MAC’s top punt returners. He averaged over 14 yards per try with three touchdowns. ASU allows nine yards per return.

You’ve Read This Far, So You Get Three Honest Thoughts On The Dollar General Bowl

I’m sorry. This is going to sound elitist, but it’s sort of hard to come across as a big-time bowl game when you’re called the Dollar General. It’s obviously a major corporation and chain – and it’s one of the few successful brick-and-mortars on the upswing – but still, the name makes it sound like the bowl comes with coupons. These are two great programs and, again, they’re conference champs – there’s no discount.

Toledo needs to win this. For all the good things the Rockets did, and considering they have an 11-win season and a MAC title, a second straight bowl loss to Appalachian State would be an optics problem. 12-2 would be amazing – especially when one of the losses is to Miami on the road. 11-3 is fine, but a team this good should handle an Appalachian State team that’s not as good as last year’s.

Can Taylor Lamb match Woodside’s production? ASU shockingly won even though its normally-reliable quarterback had a clunker of a day throwing the ball. He hit just 14-of-32 passes for 119 yards and a score, but he made up for it with 126 yards and a score. He has to be sharp in all phases.

Super. So Who’s Going To Win The Dollar General Bowl?

Toledo should’ve won last year’s Camellia Bowl, but it couldn’t stop the ASU running game. This year, it will.

This isn’t a killer Rocket run D, but it’s been good enough to hold its own. More importantly, this isn’t the ASU ground game of last year.

Woodside will be fantastic, the Toledo O will get hot early, and the Rockets will get their revenge.

Final Score

Toledo 37, Appalachian State 27
More Bowl Info & Get Tickets

Line

Toledo -7.5, o/u: 62

ATS Confidence: 3.5
5: Being in the bar already
0: Watching ball drop … and then trying to get into the bar

Must See Rating: 3
5: New Year’s Eve: Ministry of Sound, Defected London NYE
0: New Year’s Eve with Maroon 5, Las Vegas

Dollar General Bowl History, Results

Dec. 23, 2016 Troy 28, Ohio 23
Dec. 23, 2015 Georgia Southern 58 Bowling Green 27
Jan. 4, 2015 Toledo 63 Arkansas State 44
Jan. 5, 2014 Arkansas State 23 Ball State 20
Jan. 6, 2013 Arkansas State 17 Kent State 13
Jan. 8, 2012 Northern Illinois 38 Arkansas State 20
Jan. 6, 2011 Miami Univ. 35 Middle Tennessee 21
Jan. 6, 2010 Central Michigan 44 Troy 41 (2 OT)
Jan. 6, 2009 Tulsa 45 Ball State 13
Jan. 6, 2008 Tulsa 63 Bowling Green 7
Jan. 7, 2007 Southern Miss 28 Ohio 7
Dec. 21, 2005 Toledo 45 UTEP 13
Dec. 22, 2004 Bowling Green 52 Memphis 35
Dec. 18, 2003 Miami Univ. 49 Louisville 28
Dec. 18, 2002 Marshall 38 Louisville 15
12, 19, 2001 Marshall 64 East Carolina 61 (2 OT)
12, 20, 2000 Southern Miss 28 TCU 21
Dec. 22, 1999 TCU 28 East Carolina 14

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