Alabama vs. Mississippi State Fearless Prediction & Game Preview

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Fearless Prediction & Game Preview

Week 11

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Fearless Prediction & Game Preview

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Fearless Prediction & Game Preview



Check out the Alabama vs. Mississippi State fearless prediction and game preview.


Alabama (9-0) vs. Mississippi State (7-2) Game Preview

Broadcast, TV, Game Time

Date: Saturday, November 11th
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Network: ESPN

Week 11 TV Schedule, Lines, Fearless Picks


Contact @PeteFiutak

1980 was rolling right along, coming into Jackson, Mississippi 7-0 and on a 21-game winning streak. The Crimson Tide D had allowed seven points or fewer in five of the seven games, and it wasn’t supposed to have any sort of a problem against an inconsistent Mississippi State offense.

And it didn’t, but the Bama offense only managed three points in a shocking 6-3 Bulldog win.

Alabama now comes into Starkville 9-0 and with a chance to potentially clinch the SEC West.

Beat Mississippi State, get an Auburn loss to Georgia, and the Tide are off to yet another SEC Championship no matter what happens in the Iron Bowl.

But Mississippi State is just dangerous enough to rise up and throw a serious wrench into the College Football Playoff race, while also potential ruining the SEC’s dream of getting two teams into the final four.

Bama hasn’t lost to MSU since 2007, but after struggling just a wee bit with LSU, and having a few problems at Texas A&M a few weeks ago, could it be ripe for a shocker?

It’s just Alabama’s third true road game of the year, and it’s about to get hit by a whole lot of cowbell.

One Reason Why Alabama Will Win

Nick Fitzgerald has been just okay, but not amazing.

He has to be legendary, and he won’t be.

The Mississippi State pasting attack has been too mediocre, with Fitzgerald throwing ten interceptions with not enough of a downfield passing game. The accuracy and consistency aren’t there, and despite the four straight 100-yard rushing games, he’s not going to find any room to move.

He hit the 100-yard mark in six of his last seven games of last year. The one exception? 11 carries for 15 yards against Alabama, to go along with a 10-of-33, 145-yard, one pick passing day.

And now he’s going against the No. 1 team in the nation in pass efficiency defense.

Uh oh.

One Reason Why Mississippi State Will Win

How did Texas A&M keep it so close with Alabama in the 27-19 loss? How did Florida State – back when it was still Florida State – keep the game alive, at least defensively?

The defense was solid on third downs.

Alabama has more talent than everyone else, and it manages to win by not making things too complicated.

Pound away, control the clock, get the defense off the field as soon as possible, and repeat. The D is good enough to almost always make up for any mistakes and concerns, but games turn into blowouts when the offense keeps the chains moving.

Alabama converted 40% or more of its third down tries six times, and all three were easy Crimson Tide wins.

The three times they didn’t hit the 40% mark? That FSU win (19%), the A&M victory (29%), and last week against LSU (36% in the 24-10 win).

The Mississippi State defense hasn’t always been a brick wall, but to pull this off, it might be just as simple as third downs.

MSU is 7-0 when holding teams to convert under 45% of its third down chances, and 0-2 when it didn’t. The defense has to hold up against the Bama power ground game, and it has to bring enough pressure to make Jalen Hurts hurry a bit.

What’s Going To Happen

Mississippi State might be playing well defensively, but the two teams on the schedule with nasty ground games – Georgia and Auburn – rumbled for over 200 yards in blowout wins. Alabama is going to line up, blast away, and not get too cute.

Florida State and LSU were the only two times this year Bama didn’t run for 200 yards or more, and both games were struggles – and both games were double-digit wins.

There won’t be anything flashy about this. It’ll be a typical Alabama road win with the defense and toughness taking over in the second half.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Final Score

Alabama 27, Mississippi State 10

Line

Alabama -14.5, o/u: 50.5

ATS Confidence

5: Kate Upton
1: Justin Verlander … 4

Must See Rating

5: Darkest Hour
1: A Bad Moms Christmas … 3.5

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