10 Best Predictions Against The Spread: Week 10
What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 10? Here you go. Enjoy.
Stay above water … stay above water.
5-5 last week wasn’t okay – you’re dead to me, Utah – but maintain an even keel, stay above .500, and then pounce.
I was just joking around for the first several weeks. THESE are right.
Of course, these are all just for fun and giggles. So here you go with the ten best picks and predictions against the spread for Week 10.
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 31-29
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Starting with five that didn’t quite make the cut, but are still spicy …
Week 10: 10 Best Predictions ATS
Line: Penn State -9.5, o/u: 47.5
ATS PICK: Penn State
I know, there are a ton of different stats out there about how Michigan State doesn’t lose at home as an underdog in November and when they had egg white frittatas for breakfast and … I’m tired of getting my brains beaten in picking against Penn State ATS.
The Nittany Lions’ Iowa performance scares me – I got that one right – because that’s the comp. Road game, tough defense, keep it close late. I’ll take Penn State and the explosion over an MSU team with a struggling ground game.
Line: Auburn -15, o/u: 51.5
ATS PICK: Texas A&M
Let’s try this again. I was convinced the Aggies would rise up at home against Mississippi State last week …. pfffffft. The air went out of that balloon in a hurry.
Auburn is better, Auburn is motivated, Auburn should win, but this is a better Aggie defense than it showed last week. It’s not getting blown away at home two weeks in a row.
Line: San Diego State -24, o/u: 50.5
ATS PICK: San Diego State
San Diego State just beat Hawaii by 21 on the road – and Hawaii isn’t awful. San Jose State can’t stop the run in any way, shape or form, Rashaad Penny is coming off a massive performance against the Rainbow Warriors, and the Aztecs should crank up 40 points with ease.
Line: Texas Tech -3.5, o/u: 64
ATS PICK: Texas Tech
Full disclosure, every time I think Kansas State is going to be great – like last week against Kansas, it isn’t – and every time I think it’s going to stink – against Texas – it’s not.
At home and in desperate need of a win after losing three straight, the Texas Tech passing game is about to rock. Kansas State is miserable against decent passing teams, and Texas Tech – duh – isn’t bad at throwing the forward pass.
Line: Washington -17, o/u: 53
ATS PICK: Washington
What happens when you fall off a bike? You get right back on and start riding.
Oregon might have smoked Utah last week – Utah was my top ATS pick – but it still doesn’t have any sort of a passing game without Justin Herbert and it’s not going to run on the road against the Huskies.
Oregon is a rivalry game for Washington in a lot of ways. The offense will hit 40 points without a problem, and the defense will keep the Ducks down to under 20.
Loved the opening line at UW -26, love it even more now.
Line: Missouri -3, o/u: 61.5
ATS PICK: Florida
AND Florida is getting points? Don’t fall for the blowout wins over Idaho and UConn – this is still a mediocre Mizzou team that might get shut down to a dead stop if the Florida defense is motivated.
Going with the Randy Shannon factor – the team will play really, really well with Jim McElwain gone – and loving the spark Malik Zaire should provide, the Gators should roll with ease.
Line: Purdue -14, o/u: 47
ATS PICK: Illinois
This is a straight don’t-fight-the-momentum pick.
It doesn’t seem like this should make sense, but Illinois hasn’t been beaten by more than 14 points in any of the last three games – including to Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Purdue can’t score, coming up with a grand total of 45 points in the last three games.
Stay with the trend on both sides that this will be a low-scoring uggo – with the Boilermakers winning by less than two touchdowns.
Line: California -7.5, o/u: 55
ATS PICK: California
Really? You’re going to fall for Oregon State’s performance against Stanford? Nope.
Cal might have lost its last two games and five of its last six, but the offense still works – it’s the defense that’s been the problem. At home against Oregon State, there won’t be any worries against a Beaver offense that will struggle to score.
Oregon State will score around 14 points – the 33 against Colorado a few weeks ago was an aberration. The Beaver D has allowed 32 points or more against everyone but Stanford – again, that was a fluke.
Line: Arkansas -23.5, o/u: 59.5
ATS PICK: Arkansas
This doesn’t make any sense.
Normally, it would be easy to think that the SEC team would take it easy as it rests up for the big finishing kick, but Arkansas has to win this big just to show that it can. The Hogs are going to care.
Coastal Carolina is plucky, but it just lost at home to Texas State – one of the worst teams in college football – by 20. Arkansas is 3.5 points better than Texas State.
Line: Fresno State -13.5, o/u: 48.5
ATS PICK: Fresno State
Don’t be spooked by Fresno State losing at home to UNLV – that was an aberration.
The Bulldog defense is going to rise up and be fantastic again – it wasn’t awful against the Rebels – and now it’s going to shut down a horrible BYU offense.
The Cougars had some fun against San Jose State last week, and now it’ll go right back to being the same offense that couldn’t do anything over the rest of the season.