Analyzing The Week 6 College Football Lines

Analyzing The Week 6 College Football Lines

Week 6

Analyzing The Week 6 College Football Lines

Predicting & Analyzing The Week 6 College Football Lines


What should all the lines be for the Week 6 games? Before they come out, here’s the first, knee-jerk projection and guess. 


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Week 6 Lines Predictions

Week 5 Rankings & Thoughts For Every Team

Here is the drill …

Not saying these are right, or saying what the game prediction is, but in a always-go-with-your-first-thought sort of way, this was the first guess on what the lines should probably be for all the Week 6 college football games. Or to be so pretentious, where I’d probably put them at to open.

Not to say that my thoughts on the lines are dead-on right, but how do the actual opening lines differ from the educated guesses? Are there any big discrepancies to potentially make a difference?

Arkansas State at Georgia Southern

Early Opening Line Projection: Arkansas State -7.5
Actual Opening Line: COMING

Louisville at NC State

Early Opening Line Projection: NC State -3.5
Actual Opening Line: Louisville -2.5

The Cardinals keep getting overrated thanks to Lamar Jackson. The team has No. 8, and not a whole lot else. NC State should get the benefit of the doubt at home.

Memphis at UConn

Early Opening Line Projection: Memphis -13
Actual Opening Line: Memphis -13.5

The Tigers need to come back roaring after getting blown out, but UConn now has a high-powered passing offense.

Boise State at BYU

Early Opening Line Projection: Boise State -13.5
Actual Opening Line: Boise State -7

This is a gift for the Cougars. BYU has been miserable and Boise State has had two weeks off to rest up.

Illinois at Iowa

Early Opening Line Projection: Iowa -8.5
Actual Opening Line: Iowa -18

Illinois might be awful, but that defense might just have enough to keep a mediocre Hawkeye offense from going off.

Notre Dame at North Carolina

Early Opening Line Projection: Notre Dame -19.5
Actual Opening Line: Notre Dame -17

About right, but the Irish will run for over 300 yards with ease.

Western Michigan at Buffalo

Early Opening Line Projection: Western Michigan -8.5
Actual Opening Line: Western Michigan -8

UB has enough of a defense to make this a fight, but Western Michigan might be on a roll after blowing away Ball State.

Eastern Michigan at Toledo

Early Opening Line Projection: Toledo -6.5
Actual Opening Line: Toledo -13

That’s a LOT of points to give up to a plucky Eastern Michigan team that seems great at keeping everything close. The Eagles lost to Ohio by seven and Kentucky by four.

Central Michigan at Ohio

Early Opening Line Projection: Ohio -5.5
Actual Opening Line: Ohio -12

Yeah, the early projection was way off. The Bobcats should be closer to -10, but CMU is overdue to do something great.

Ball State at Akron

Early Opening Line Projection: Ball State -4.5
Actual Opening Line: Akron -9

Really? Yeah, Ball State just got obliterated by Western Michigan, but Akron is awful.

Bowling Green at Miami University

Early Opening Line Projection: Miami University -15.5
Actual Opening Line: Miami University -14.5

This still might be way, way low against a punchless Bowling Green team.

Marshall at Charlotte

Early Opening Line Projection: Marshall -25
Actual Opening Line: Marshall -15

No, no, no. Charlotte might have come up with a relatively decent performance last week, and it’s at home, but Marshall just rolled by Cincinnati by 17 on the road.

UCF at Cincinnati

Early Opening Line Projection: UCF -11.5
Actual Opening Line: UCF -16

I was curious to see how much UCF would be favored by after blowing out Maryland and Memphis. I was way, way too low.

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina

Early Opening Line Projection: Coastal Carolina -4
Actual Opening Line: Georgia State -2

Coastal Carolina at home should’ve received a wee more respect against a bad team.

Penn State at Northwestern

Early Opening Line Projection: Penn State -8.5
Actual Opening Line: Penn State -14

Northwestern is way overdue for a good performance, and Penn State is way overdue to come back down to earth.

Temple at East Carolina

Early Opening Line Projection: East Carolina -3
Actual Opening Line: Temple -3

Interesting. At home, East Carolina’s offense should ramp back up against a Temple team that struggles to score.


Duke at Virginia

Early Opening Line Projection: Duke -2
Actual Opening Line: PICK

Even with Virginia at home and after a week off, this might be a total gift. Duke is still good, even after the loss to Miami.

Pitt at Syracuse

Early Opening Line Projection: Syracuse -3.5
Actual Opening Line: Syracuse -4.5

Call this a toss-up game. Neither team has done enough against good teams – and neither one is all that good.

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Early Opening Line Projection: Virginia Tech -9.5
Actual Opening Line: Virginia Tech -16

Boston College might have found its running game again. It might just take the air out of the ball.

New Mexico State at Appalachian State

Early Opening Line Projection: Appalachian State -6.5
Actual Opening Line: Appalachian State -10.5

New Mexico State has been stunningly decent, but App State is at home after a week off.

Maryland at Ohio State

Early Opening Line Projection: Ohio State -23.5
Actual Opening Line: Ohio State -32

Considering I thought Minnesota was going to beat Maryland last week with ease, I’m not assuming anything with this Terps team.

Wake Forest at Clemson

Early Opening Line Projection: Clemson -16
Actual Opening Line: Clemson -21.5

Wake Forest’s performance against FSU wasn’t a fluke. Clemson, though, is playing too well right now. Three touchdowns, though? That seems like a lot.

Minnesota at Purdue

Early Opening Line Projection: Purdue -4
Actual Opening Line: Purdue -3

That early projection was sort of a guess – no idea what the early adopters were going to think about the Boilermakers with a week off. Minnesota might be a cheap underdog.

Michigan State at Michigan

Early Opening Line Projection: Michigan -8.5
Actual Opening Line: Michigan -14

The Wolverines have won every game by double-digits, but Michigan State’s defense might have found its groove against Iowa.

Southern Miss at UTSA

Early Opening Line Projection: UTSA -9
Actual Opening Line: UTSA -10

This is dangerous. Southern Miss is a whole lot better than it looked, and UTSA is getting a whole lot of credit after having two weeks off – and for beating Baylor.

WKU at UTEP

Early Opening Line Projection: WKU -21
Actual Opening Line: WKU -17.5

You could set the line anywhere about 15 and it would probably be way, way, way too low.

Stanford at Utah

Early Opening Line Projection: Stanford -4
Actual Opening Line: Stanford -6.5

Utah has yet to beat anyone who’s any good, but it’s rested with two weeks off to prepare for the home date with the red hot Cardinal.

Louisiana at Idaho

Early Opening Line Projection: Idaho -3.5
Actual Opening Line: Idaho -5.5

Idaho is the flakiest of the flaky, but it gets the Ragin’ Cajuns on a very long road trip.

Colorado State at Utah State

Early Opening Line Projection: Colorado State -8
Actual Opening Line: Colorado State -7

Utah State is a bit of a wild-card at the moment after the offense has ramped things up in a big way. The blowout over BYU was a stunner.

Tulsa at Tulane

Early Opening Line Projection: Tulsa -5
Actual Opening Line: Tulane -3.5

Full disclosure: I like Tulsa a lot more than just about everyone else does. Tulane had two weeks off to prepare for the home date.

Army at Rice

Early Opening Line Projection: Army -10
Actual Opening Line: Army -13.5

Army isn’t crushing and killing teams – it only beat a miserable UTEP by 14 – and this is on the road at Rice.

San Diego State at UNLV

Early Opening Line Projection: San Diego State -17
Actual Opening Line: San Diego State -9

UNLV might be better than it was early on, but the Aztecs have the defense to turn the lights out if it’s focused.

Air Force at Navy

Early Opening Line Projection: Navy -3.5
Actual Opening Line: Navy -9.5

Interesting. Remember, Air Force gave San Diego State a hard time and pushed Michigan. Just sayin’.

Arkansas at South Carolina

Early Opening Line Projection: South Carolina -3.5
Actual Opening Line: Arkansas -2.5

Flip a coin on this one. South Carolina keeps everything close, and Arkansas hasn’t shown much of anything so far.

Arizona at Colorado

Early Opening Line Projection: Colorado -6
Actual Opening Line: Colorado -6.5

Colorado is coming off of two underwhelming performances, and Arizona had the week off. Even though this is in Boulder, be careful.

Texas Tech at Kansas

Early Opening Line Projection: Texas Tech -22
Actual Opening Line: Texas Tech  -16.5

This is a whole lot of respect being given to a Kansas team that’s about to get lit up. But it’s a home game for a Jayhawk team that’s starting to get the O going.

Cal at Washington

Early Opening Line Projection: Washington -16
Actual Opening Line: Washington -27

The Huskies are killing everyone lately, and Cal is coming off a clunker vs. Oregon. Still, those are a lot of points being given away to a team with a solid defense.

Washington State at Oregon

Early Opening Line Projection: Washington State -2
Actual Opening Line: Washington State -2.5

Vegas doesn’t seem to care too much about Justin Herbert being out. Oregon’s offense should work no matter who’s under center.

FIU at Middle Tennessee

Early Opening Line Projection: Middle Tennessee -4
Actual Opening Line: NOT AVAILABLE YET

The Blue Raiders can’t seem to get their season going, but FIU has to produce on the road.

Week 5 Rankings & Thoughts For Every Team

Oregon State at USC

Early Opening Line Projection: USC -33
Actual Opening Line: USC -34

Sort of shocked the early projection was so close to reality. I thought the educated guess of 33 would be way too high – apparently not.

ULM at Texas State

Early Opening Line Projection: ULM -8.5
Actual Opening Line: ULM -7.5

I’m smelling a top ATS pick of the week in a few days. ULM has an O; TXST doesn’t.

Georgia at Vanderbilt

Early Opening Line Projection: Georgia -11.5
Actual Opening Line: Georgia -16.5

The Vanderbilt lovefest is way over now. Can Georgia stay at this high a level? Probably.

West Virginia at TCU

Early Opening Line Projection: TCU -5
Actual Opening Line: TCU -12.5

Oooooooooooooh. TCU is fantastic, but West Virginia’s offense with two weeks off? Ooooooooooooh.

Louisiana Tech at UAB

Early Opening Line Projection: Louisiana Tech -12.5
Actual Opening Line: Louisiana Tech -12

The Bulldogs have yet to blow up on a good team, but they were been solid against South Carolina and beat WKU. UAB is feisty, but …

Kent State at Northern Illinois

Early Opening Line Projection: Northern Illinois -21
Actual Opening Line: Northern Illinois -23

As always is the case with Kent State, there’s a chance it doesn’t score. NIU is back to being NIU.

Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion

Early Opening Line Projection: Old Dominion -5.5
Actual Opening Line: Florida Atlantic -3.5

Check out the love being given to the Fighting Kiffins. The winner probably ends up going bowling, while the loser doesn’t. ODU is coming off a two-week break.

LSU at Florida

Early Opening Line Projection: Florida -5.5
Actual Opening Line: Florida -6.5

GOOD LUCK. Will LSU pride up and rally? Will Florida get a big performance out for Feleipe Franks? Again, good luck figuring this one out.

Iowa State at Oklahoma

Early Opening Line Projection: Oklahoma -18.5
Actual Opening Line: Oklahoma -28

That’s a lot of points being given to a good offense. Don’t be fooled by the performance against Texas – Iowa State can put points on the board.

SMU at Houston

Early Opening Line Projection: Houston -6
Actual Opening Line: Houston -5.5

The Cougars have been painfully underwhelming so far, while this is the SMU’s chase at a breakthrough win.

Missouri at Kentucky

Early Opening Line Projection: Kentucky -15
Actual Opening Line: Kentucky -13.5

Mizzou might be coming off a two-week break, and Kentucky is sputtering too much, but at home, this might be a gift.

Wisconsin at Nebraska

Early Opening Line Projection: Wisconsin -13.5
Actual Opening Line: Wisconsin -12.5

Gut-feeling – the Wisconsin D will be cheesed after the way the Northwestern game ended. Set the over/under on Tanner Lee picks at 2.5.

Ole Miss at Auburn

Early Opening Line Projection: Auburn -17
Actual Opening Line: Auburn -21

Don’t go by what happened against Alabama – Ole Miss might rise up and try playing again after all but giving up halfway through the embarrassment against the Tide.

Kansas State at Texas

Early Opening Line Projection: Texas -5.5
Actual Opening Line: Texas -5.5

I’m off the Kansas State train. I’m done making excuses for this team – it’s just not okay. Texas might be becoming great.

Alabama at Texas A&M

Early Opening Line Projection: Alabama -27.5
Actual Opening Line: Alabama -25.5

It’ll be so, so tempting to make a case for either side. Texas A&M is a whole lot better than Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.

Fresno State at San Jose State

Early Opening Line Projection: Fresno State -8
Actual Opening Line: Fresno State -16

San Jose State is awful, but at home? Fresno State shouldn’t be giving away 16 to anyone.

Hawaii at Nevada

Early Opening Line Projection: Hawaii -4
Actual Opening Line: Hawaii -4

Hawaii, if you’re any good, it’s time to blow away a miserable Wolf Pack team that can’t seem to do much of anything right.

Miami at Florida State

Early Opening Line Projection: Miami -7
Actual Opening Line: Miami -3

Have you seen this FSU O line? After the way Wake Forest played, Miami might come up with ten sacks and 20 tackles for loss.

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