Analyzing The Week 5 College Football Lines

Analyzing The Week 5 College Football Lines

Week 5

Analyzing The Week 5 College Football Lines

Predicting The Week 5 College Football Lines


What should all the lines be for the Week 5 games? Before they come out, here’s the first, knee-jerk projection and guess. 


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Week 5 Lines Predictions

Week 4 Rankings & Thoughts For Every Team

Here is the drill …

Not saying these are right, or saying what the game prediction is, but in a always-go-with-your-first-thought sort of way, this was the first guess on what the lines should probably be for all the Week 5 college football games. Or to be so pretentious, where I’d probably put them at to open.

Not to say that my thoughts on the lines are dead-on right, but how do the actual opening lines differ from the educated guesses? Are there any big discrepancies to potentially make a difference?

Texas at Iowa State

Early Opening Line Projection: Texas -7.5
Actual Opening Line: Texas -5.5

There’s a lot of love being given to Iowa State at home. There’s no real momentum given to Texas from the USC game.

Miami at Duke

Early Opening Line Projection: Miami -6.5
Actual Opening Line: Miami -6

About right, but Duke has answered every challenge so far.

Nebraska at Illinois

Early Opening Line Projection: Nebraska -4.5
Actual Opening Line: Nebraska -7

Both teams are lousy, but you want to guess that Nebraska will suddenly stop screwing up?

BYU at Utah State

Early Opening Line Projection: BYU -5.5
Actual Opening Line: BYU -3

BYU has been awful, but it played a slew of good teams. The real line should be much higher.

USC at Washington State

Early Opening Line Projection: USC -7.5
Actual Opening Line: USC -4.5

This might be Christmas if this stays under seven.

Northwestern at Wisconsin

Early Opening Line Projection: Wisconsin -14.5
Actual Opening Line: Wisconsin -14.5

Northwestern hasn’t shown anything, and Wisconsin is rested and at home.

USF at East Carolina

Early Opening Line Projection: USF -27.5
Actual Opening Line: USF -24.5

USF is destroying the line over the last few games.

Vanderbilt at Florida

Early Opening Line Projection: Florida -3.5
Actual Opening Line: Florida -9.5

Way, way, way off. Florida can’t score, and Vandy really can play D.

Houston at Temple

Early Opening Line Projection: Houston -14.5
Actual Opening Line: Houston -13.5

Houston has yet to be Houston, but Temple is awful.

New Mexico State at Arkansas

Early Opening Line Projection: Arkansas -11.5
Actual Opening Line: Arkansas -15.5

Get ready for this to go down fast. NMSU is dangerous.

Maryland at Minnesota

Early Opening Line Projection: Minnesota -4.5
Actual Opening Line: Minnesota -12.5

The Gophers are rested, but 12.5? The Terp quarterback issues are the reason for the big number

Rice at Pitt

Early Opening Line Projection: Pitt -23.5
Actual Opening Line: Pitt -20.5

It Pitt is going to turn its season around, it has to be a four touchdown win over a horrible Rice squad.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech

Early Opening Line Projection: Georgia Tech -7.5
Actual Opening Line: Georgia Tech -9.5

At some point, North Carolina is going to show up and actually play. The original thought on the line was probably way off.

Syracuse at NC State

Early Opening Line Projection: NC State -14.5
Actual Opening Line: NC State -12

Is there a letdown for the Wolfpack? The problem is Syracuse – the same team hasn’t shown up for the same performance twice in a row.

Central Michigan at Boston College

Early Opening Line Projection: Boston College -7
Actual Opening Line: Boston College -8

Watch out for this line to go down. CMU could win this outright.

Indiana at Penn State

Early Opening Line Projection: Penn State -13.5
Actual Opening Line: Penn State -16.5

Can Penn State come back roaring after the emotional win? Indiana might be able to keep up late.

Georgia at Tennessee

Early Opening Line Projection: Georgia -8
Actual Opening Line: Georgia -7

If Tennessee doesn’t take its game to a whole other level, the line should be double. At least.

Florida State at Wake Forest

Early Opening Line Projection: Florida State -10
Actual Opening Line: Florida State -7.5

This is a LOT of love given to a Wake Forest team that struggled with Appalachian State.

Ohio at UMass

Early Opening Line Projection: Ohio -7.5
Actual Opening Line: No Line Yet

UMass is banged up – the line might come in at around 12 if QB Andrew Ford and TE Adam Breneman aren’t okay.

Baylor at Kansas State

Early Opening Line Projection: Kansas State -17.5
Actual Opening Line: Kansas State -14

At home and with time to stew over the loss to Vanderbilt, the Wildcats should roar.

UTEP at Army

Early Opening Line Projection: Army -14
Actual Opening Line: Army -24

Yeah … the early projection was off. This is more about how bad UTEP is than how good Army might be.

Navy at Tulsa

Early Opening Line Projection: Navy -6.5
Actual Opening Line: Navy -3.5

It all depends on which Navy team shows up, and if Tulsa can get the offense moving early.

Buffalo at Kent State

Early Opening Line Projection: Buffalo -8
Actual Opening Line: Buffalo -6.5

The line could be 18 if UB QB Tyree Jackson can play.

Texas State at Wyoming

Early Opening Line Projection: Wyoming -17.5
Actual Opening Line: Wyoming -17

At home, the Cowboys need to finally get a big game out of Josh Allen to get to the 17.

Connecticut at SMU

Early Opening Line Projection: SMU -23
Actual Opening Line: SMU -19

Connecticut can’t stop anyone. SMU O will roll.

Arizona State at Stanford

Early Opening Line Projection: Stanford -13
Actual Opening Line: Stanford -15.5

It all depends on the Cardinal quarterback situation. Arizona State might be a lot better than originally thought.

Eastern Michigan at Kentucky

Early Opening Line Projection: Kentucky -11
Actual Opening Line: Kentucky -14

Eastern Michigan is plucky-good. What kind of mindset will UK be in after a brutal loss to Florida.

Iowa at Michigan State

Early Opening Line Projection: Michigan State -3
Actual Opening Line: Michigan State -3.5

Good luck trying to figure this one out. The line is basically saying it’s a guess right now.

Miami University at Notre Dame

Early Opening Line Projection: Notre Dame -17
Actual Opening Line: Notre Dame -23

How much will Notre Dame be looking ahead? Miami has a decent defense.

Mississippi State at Auburn

Early Opening Line Projection: Auburn -4.5
Actual Opening Line: Auburn -9.5

Wow how that all changed in a hurry. There’s no more love given to the Bulldogs after the Georgia thumping.

Akron at Bowling Green

Early Opening Line Projection: Akron -3.5
Actual Opening Line: Bowling Green -1

Bowling Green probably shouldn’t be favored against air.

Troy at LSU

Early Opening Line Projection: LSU -8
Actual Opening Line: LSU -19.5

Have you seen LSU lately? With Derrius Guice likely out – or at least not close to 100% – do you really want to give up 19.5?

Charlotte at FIU

Early Opening Line Projection: FIU -7.5
Actual Opening Line: FIU -12.5

Yeah … the first guess was way, way low. Charlotte might be the worst team in college football.

Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic

Early Opening Line Projection: Middle Tennessee -5
Actual Opening Line: No Line Yet

It all depends on whether or not Middle Tennessee QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James can go.

South Alabama at Louisiana Tech

Early Opening Line Projection: Louisiana Tech -13.5
Actual Opening Line: Louisiana Tech -14

This might be way low. South Alabama has yet to show anything.

Marshall at Cincinnati

Early Opening Line Projection: Cincinnati -6.5
Actual Opening Line: Cincinnati -5

Full disclosure – the early projection was really and truly a total guess. This might be the toughest game of the week to figure out.

North Texas at Southern Miss

Early Opening Line Projection: Southern Miss -3.5
Actual Opening Line: Southern Miss -8.5

North Texas has enough of an offense to think that this line might be way, way off.

Ball State at Western Michigan

Early Opening Line Projection: Western Michigan -10
Actual Opening Line: No Line Yet

Ball State has a banged up backfield and might be missing star RB James Gilbert again.

Coastal Carolina at ULM

Early Opening Line Projection: ULM -13
Actual Opening Line: ULM -11

Can Coastal Carolina bounce back after being rocked by an FCS team? ULM’s offense is rolling.

Air Force at New Mexico

Early Opening Line Projection: Air Force -7
Actual Opening Line: PICK

Wow. Just … wow.


Memphis at UCF

Early Opening Line Projection: UCF -6.5
Actual Opening Line: UCF -3.5

Is it too easy to overlove UCF’s blowout over Maryland? Probably.

Ohio State at Rutgers

Early Opening Line Projection: Ohio State -38.5
Actual Opening Line: Ohio State -29

Ohio State might have just figured it out. Don’t get fired up about Rutgers hanging with Nebraska.

South Carolina at Texas A&M

Early Opening Line Projection: Texas A&M -2
Actual Opening Line: Texas A&M -9

Has Texas A&M shown anything to show that it should be -9 against anyone good?

Clemson at Virginia Tech

Early Opening Line Projection: Clemson -6
Actual Opening Line: Clemson -6.5

It’ll be interesting to see where this line goes during the week. The Clemson love might grow quickly.

Washington at Oregon State

Early Opening Line Projection: Washington -31
Actual Opening Line: Washington -26.5

The only concern is the time off. Oregon State has had two weeks to get ready for a home game, but it won’t have starting QB Jake Luton.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

Early Opening Line Projection: Oklahoma State -5.5
Actual Opening Line: Oklahoma State -11

11? In Lubbock? Oklahoma State is still getting its love and respect for beating a bad Pitt team.

Ole Miss at Alabama

Early Opening Line Projection: Alabama -27.5
Actual Opening Line: Alabama -28

Ole Miss has had two weeks off to prepare, but Alabama will care after what happened over the last two years against the Rebels. You know what happens when Alabama cares.

Nevada at Fresno State

Early Opening Line Projection: Fresno State -3
Actual Opening Line: Fresno State -10.5

This is a whole lot of respect given to a mediocre Fresno State. That’s how bad Nevada is.

Northern Illinois at San Diego State

Early Opening Line Projection: San Diego State -8
Actual Opening Line: San Diego State -12

NIU has had two weeks off to prepare after the big Nebraska win.

San Jose State at UNLV

Early Opening Line Projection: UNLV -9
Actual Opening Line: UNLV -11.5

Do you want to figure out which UNLV team is going to show up?

Colorado at UCLA

Early Opening Line Projection: Colorado -5
Actual Opening Line: UCLA -6.5

Uhhhhhhh, how? Vegas is aware that UCLA has no defense whatsoever, right?

Cal at Oregon

Early Opening Line Projection: Oregon -5.5
Actual Opening Line: Oregon -15

Uhhhhhh, how, Part 2? Oregon might be really, really overrated, and Cal has been solid so far.

Colorado State at Hawaii

Early Opening Line Projection: Hawaii -2
Actual Opening Line: No Line Yet

Colorado State is the far better team, but going to Hawaii is always a problem.

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