Week 11

Week 11 Final Thoughts, Predictions & Investment Advice


Check out the final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice – because you have to.


Week 11 College Football Final Thoughts, Predictions & Advice

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Week 11 Fearless Predictions & Game Previews 
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | IND | MACM-West
Week 11 Expert Picks

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At the very least, no matter how bad these picks are, and no matter how awful the analysis is, it can’t be any worse than anything coming from the polling gods who completely and totally whiffed on their “science” of predicting a presidential election.

I take the responsibility of healing a divided nation very, very seriously.

No matter what side of the aisle you sit on, I’m hugging you, America, with this investment advice. (And profusely apologize if any part of this slows down the Trump Bump in the markets.)

This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only. However, just in case you dabble …

If you were among those who were paid early by the house as insurance against the sure-thing Hillary election, welcome to your juice money to play with.

Does Florida State really care that much about playing college football anymore? Of course it does, but the Boston College defense is far better than it showed in a few ugly blowouts.

Clemson fans got on me last year for continuing to pick against their team week after week. This isn’t that. The Tigers are going to the College Football Playoff, but they’re overdue for a dogfight. Pitt can’t play any defense, but that offense is interesting against a banged up team.

Then again, I told everyone who’d listen last week that Syracuse was a deep sleeper against Clemson. As it turned out, it was a very, very deep slumber.

Cincinnati can’t score. UCF’s offense is okay, but the defense has been terrific. At home, and with bowl eligibility on the line, the Knights are going to keep this low.

Right on Northwestern keeping it close against Ohio State, tragically wrong on Nebraska doing the same, at home, even after the debacle against Michigan, Maryland giving up 29 to the Buckeyes seems like a lot. If you’re one of those Double Digit Home Dog guys – DDHD for the rest of the article – why not?

Never, ever, ever take an underdog to cover if it’s getting seven points or fewer unless you actually think it can win outright. I don’t think Indiana can beat Penn State, but just this once, I’m cool with Hoosiers keeping this tight.

It’s no fun picking against Louisville right now, no matter what the spread, but giving a solid Wake Forest team 35 points might be the ATM pick of the week. The Demon Deacon D hasn’t allowed more than 33 points all year, and that’s the only time it’s given up more than 28.

Really? You’re actually thinking about taking Iowa State on the road giving up ten points? I don’t care if it’s Kansas, you … fine. You’re right.

Tulsa and Navy will come up with one of the weekend’s biggest firefights. Don’t do it. You’re going to be sweating it out until the final snap, and even then, it’s a coin flip.

The East Carolina line has moved this week against SMU, going from -5 to -7. Loved it at five, hate it at seven. Just keep on walking.

Miami University keeps on playing better than I think it is, and Buffalo keeps on playing worse. But the Bulls getting 10.5 is spicy.

Virginia Tech will play Clemson for the ACC title, and if it wins out, I’m calling that it’ll be in the College Football Playoff. That doesn’t mean it’s not going to have a nightmare of a time dealing with the Georgia Tech curveball this late in the season.

There’s just no way. I know, last year Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech 70-53, but before you jump on the 90 over, the Red Raider offense has only scored more than 38 once in the last five games.

– It was a strange line to start, but the market corrected itself in a hurry. Texas A&M opened as a -20 on Ole Miss before the Trevor Knight news, and then it dropped to -10. If you liked it at 20 with Knight, then you should be fine with Jake Hubenak under center.

Charlotte shouldn’t be a double-digit favorite against a bag of White Castle sliders, but against Rice, okay.

Okay, ha ha. Wyoming, with the division title in play, as just a -7.5 on the road against UNLV? Don’t overthink this. The Cowboys are playing too well.

Colorado State is better than you think. It’ll beat Air Force on the road, much less needing the six.

Alabama just seems way overdue for one of those go-through-the-motions 31-9 blowout wins. However, I’m done picking against the Tide – Mississippi State is about to get rolled.

Yeah, WKU is unstoppable, but North Texas is playing more than well enough to keep it within four touchdowns.

Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State vs. Troy. The Mountaineers have been a gift for many, but Troy is still a bit of an unknown. Rested and at home, the Trojans might come up with something special.

I’ve been told by several people I know and pretend to love that Georgia is about to come up with something big against Auburn. Not a chance. The Tiger D – not the O – will be the reason for an easy double-digit cover.

Wisconsin just doesn’t score. I know they covered against Northwestern on the road last week, and I know Illinois might not score, but the Badgers can’t kick field goals and they’re awful in the red zone.

What, about this season, would possibly give you the impression that Tennessee can blow out anyone of substance? Of course the Vols are two touchdowns better than Kentucky, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

Fully realizing the final score will probably be something stupid like 9-6, if someone is offering an over of 37.5, even if it’s South Carolina vs. Florida, you just say thank you.

Yup. Two former Steve Spurrier programs are projected to combine to score fewer than 38 points. There’s no fun and there’s definitely no gun.

So, so, so conflicted. LSU is better than Arkansas. By every objective measure, the Tigers should win this game. But you always have to take into account the post-Alabama factor and how brutal that game was. This is when we find out just how good Ed Orgeron really is.

You have failed me for the last time, Oregon. Christian McCaffrey might be on the road, but he’s going to run for 250 yards and four scores against this horrible, horrible, horrible, horrible, injured, horrible Duck D.

That Navy debacle was bad for Notre Dame – it’s called a third down stop, Irish; look into it – but this Army thing could be worse. The Knight defense is good enough to hang within two touchdowns, and don’t be floored if this is an outright win.

What on earth has happened so far this year to give you the impression that a Big Ten winless Michigan State team can beat Rutgers – or anyone – by more than two touchdowns?

Virginia has me spooked – a FANTASTIC name for a band, by the way. It’s sort of been close over the last few weeks, and at home, giving up 10.5 to a flaky Miami team seems like a lot.

I told you last week that a few makes-absolutely-no-logical-sense weird things were about to happen in Conference USA play, and both Middle Tennessee and Southern Miss were shocked. UTSA was the one doing some of the shocking, blowing out the Blue Raiders 45-25. UTSA +22 against Louisiana Tech – it’s going to be okay.

Cal beat Washington State 34-28 last year. I despise ridiculously high overs, but 34-28 might be your first half score this time around.

No one will ever remember, notice or care, but in hindsight, that three-OT, 56-54 Texas State win at Ohio now might be the biggest shocker of the season. The Sun Belt Bobcats have yet to come close against any other FBS team but ULM, but I have a fundamental issue thinking Idaho will win anything by eight points, especially on the road. I have to get over that – the Vandals become bowl eligible with a win.

Don’t worry about it. Really. Washington is into the whole Make A Statement thing, and it’s about to do just that at home against USC.

Even if the pick is wrong, it was the right shot to take, Part One: Oregon State sucks, but if UCLA is giving it 12 points, you take it.

Boise State’s Jeremy McNichols will run for 200 yards and three scores against a bad, bad, awful Hawaii D. But this Bronco team just doesn’t have the blowout gene.

After getting embarrassed last week, Middle Tennessee will blow up that Marshall D real good. The Blue Raiders will crank up 500 yards of offense in a massive comeback performance after getting blown out by UTSA.

– It’s about to turn midnight for the Texas defense vs. West Virginia.
Everyone will come to see D’Onta Foreman, and will leave talking Skyler Howard.

Under, under, under. The community figured this one out fast, but 80 is still too many for Oklahoma-Baylor. The Sooners are going to roll offensively, but the Bears just don’t have the pop now.

I’m done thinking Nebraska is anything more than just a decent college football team. Minnesota lost to Penn State in a late meltdown/overtime game, and lost a week later to Iowa by seven. I’m sure I’m missing this, but if you want to give the Gophers seven points against a Husker team with a questionable Tommy Armstrong, okay.

No joke, the gods don’t often grant you something this nice. For some strange reason, Vanderbilt-Missouri jumped from 47.5 to 54. The Tiger D might be miserable, but Vandy has yet to score more than 16 points in SEC play.

No joke, the gods don’t often grant you something this nice, Part 2: South Florida -3 over Memphis? Sure, if you’re going to give me the queen … check.

– Even if the pick is wrong, it was the right shot to take, Part Two: Iowa +22. It’s at home, it’s a night game, and it’s just the second time all year Michigan has left the state.

– It’ll be easy to overanalyze Houston vs. Tulane. Tulane can’t throw, Houston is great against the run … the Green Wave will hang within 25.

Dumb pick that I know better than to take, but even though Colorado can’t score lately, that defense will shut down Arizona to a dead stop. But it’s in Arizona, and the Cats are desperate. I know better than to take that, but …

San Diego State locked up the West part of the Mountain West, but it still has the New Year’s Six to shoot for. The Aztecs are unstoppable running the ball, and Nevada can’t stop a pedestrian ground game, much less one with Donnel Pumphrey.

AND FINALLY …

Utah State – losers of five of the last six, and with the only win against Fresno State – is -2.5 favorite with an injured QB Kent Myers and an awful run defense vs. New Mexico’s unstoppable No. 1 running game. If you don’t know what to do with this, I’ve failed.

Week 11 Fearless Predictions & Game Previews 
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | IND | MACM-West
Week 11 Expert Picks

Follow @ColFootballNews to get the latest picks and previews