Week 10

Week 10 Final Thoughts, Predictions & Investment Advice


Check out the final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice – because you have to.


Week 10 College Football Final Thoughts, Predictions & Advice

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Week 10 Fearless Predictions & Game Previews 
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | Ind | MAC | M-West | Sun Belt

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You were handed three layups on Thursday night.

Oklahoma sluggish in a middle of the week road game was easy, UCLA getting 13 against Colorado was a breeze, and Arkansas State rolling by Georgia State by more than a touchdown was obvious.

Now the real work begins.

Going forward, there’s one rule for November: you’re never, ever crazy to take the Double Digit Home Dog – DDHD – in a conference game. Never. But this week, that theory might take a bit of a pounding.

This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only. However, just in case you dabble …

At some point, Connecticut is going to start playing defense like it’s supposed to. The coaching situation is being shaken up, and Temple is coming into the game red hot, but if you’re a DDHD guy, especially on a quirky Friday night, you could do worse.

Boise State needs to wake up. The pipedream of the College Football Playoff is gone, but it can still get into the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six slot. It’s in the first CFP rankings, and it’s still potentially there for them. Now go show it against San Jose State.

Miami University is playing well. The defense has shown up, and the offense has a running game for the first time in years. Central Michigan is going to win by more than 3.5, anyway, and if it doesn’t, it still wasn’t a crazy idea in the first place.

Gut feeling that goes beyond the fourth thinkThin bar of the day I just downed. Notre Dame is about to go on a run. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Navy busted through the long losing streak long ago, but it’s still Notre Dame vs. Navy.

I know Appalachian State is the best team in the conference, if it’s not Troy, but 31.5 vs. Texas State is an awful lot for one Sun Belt team to be giving away to another Sun Belt team.

If you want to deal with the flakiness of a Cincinnati offense that could just as easily put up 38 on BYU as it could 16, that’s on you.

Stay away from option on option action, but the Army defense is playing well. The 47.5 over/under against Air Force might not seem like it, but it’s a smidge too high.

Filed under the department of OOOOOPS, I thought Louisville was going to make a statement against Virginia last week. Disrespected in the College Football Playoff rankings, Louisville is going to make a statement against Boston College this week, DDHD aside.

Very, very, very quietly, Minnesota has turned into a nice 6-2 team. It’s found ways to keep games closer than they should be against inferior opponents, but that’s not happening this week against Purdue.

Duke just lost leading rusher Jela Duncan for the year. Unwavering belief that Virginia Tech might just win the ACC title gets confirmed as it blows off the DDHD thing and rolls over the Blue Devils.

Be very, very, very, very, very careful of Syracuse. Clemson’s pass defense is terrific, but the Orange are bombing on everyone. The Tigers are coming off a physical and mental beating against Florida State, and 26.5 is an awful lot to give away to a team with two weeks off to prepare and an offense that’ll hang 350 passing yards on the board.

Don’t think about it, just roll. Kansas is about to get absolutely creamed by West Virginia. Don’t be discouraged by the Mountaineers’ loss to Oklahoma State – they outplayed the Cowboys, other than the turnovers. Minor technicality.

No matter what you do with Indiana-Rutgers, the spread will come down to the last drive.

I refuse to live in a world where Michigan State is fewer than seven points worse than Illinois.

If it looks like a trap, and smells like a trap, and feels like a trap, it ain’t no trap. Until NC State decides it wants to play college football again, assume Florida State isn’t going to lose four ACC games in a season.

If Maryland scores more than once on Michigan, hold a parade down Lakeshore Drive, finishing with a rally in Grant Park.

No, no, no, no, no. Wake Forest is absolutely more than a field goal better than Virginia, but walk away. Just walk away. You have no idea which offense will show up – for either side.

I need an intervention on Kansas State. Maybe I just want to believe the Wildcats are a sane college football alternative in a Big 12 that’s gone offensively mad, but I can’t pick Oklahoma State in Manhattan.

Tulsa is a whole lot more entertaining than you might think, and East Carolina will put up points in bunches, but the two aren’t combining for 75 points. This is more 38-30ish than 45-40.

There will be a massive Conference USA road upset. Either UTSA will shock Middle Tennessee, or Charlotte will do something snazzy against Southern Miss. Flip a coin … I’m guessing the 49ers are within three touchdowns of the Golden Eagles.

In the Even If This Is Wrong, It’s Still The Right Move category, at some point, TCU is going to stop sucking at college football. I’m sure Baylor is 8.5 points better than the Horned Frogs, but even if TCU is wrong, it’s still the right move.

Miami just seems sort of … sad. Its season is hitting the skids just as Pitt is starting to look fun. I’ll take the Canes at home to win, but I don’t have to like it.

The awful North Carolina run defense has improved over the last few weeks, but do you really trust it against Georgia Tech? Me neither, however, the Tar Heels will have a good ol’ time against the worst defense in college football on third downs.

Pick I Know Is Wrong, But Will Make Anyway. Vanderbilt’s defense might just be good enough against the run the hang around with Auburn. I know that’s wrong, but I’m picking the Commodores to not get annihilated, anyway.

If you have told Georgia before the season it would be just a 2.5-point favorite against Kentucky, it would’ve thought the Wildcats were in the midst of a special season. Instead, Georgia is just lousy.

Again, like my Kansas State problem, I have an issue with simply wanting the Arkansas way of life to work. I like running games. I like tough defense. I like Bret Bielema. There’s one problem with that, though – Florida is more like what Arkansas should be under Bielema than Arkansas is.

I know Colorado State is bad, but Fresno State is really, really, really bad.

At some point, this whole Georgia Southern rushing attack thing is going to work again. The Ole Miss run defense isn’t any good, the season is going nowhere, and the Eagles are way overdue to bust out.

Troy might be the nation’s most underappreciated team, considering its one loss was a tight battle with Clemson in Death Valley. Massachusetts might be the nation’s worst team. Even so, the Minutemen have kept things shockingly close against a slew of decent teams – including from the SEC. A three-touchdown line seems like a lot.

Like seeing two really ugly people kissing and thinking, “aw, that’s nice that they found someone,” Florida Atlantic vs. Rice is for the honor of being No. 128 in the CFN College Football No. 1 to 128 rankings this week.

Wyoming, if you really and truly want to be my 2016 Mountain West Mountain Division champion, you need to be five points better than Utah State.

Shocked that the line opened at -1.5, not shocked that the investment community pounced all over it instantly. South Carolina is now a seven-point favorite over Missouri.

South Alabama should be good enough to blow out a horrible ULM team, but 1) I haven’t been able to recalibrate my Sun Belt settings all year, and 2) DDHD kicking in big-time here.

North Texas getting 20 as a DDHD vs. Louisiana Tech is spicy. Even tastier is the 65.5 over/under that Louisiana Tech could hit by itself if it gets hot early on.

In theory, Washington should obliterate Cal. Cal can’t stop the run, Cal’s passing game should hit a brick wall against the Dawg secondary, Cal sputtered against USC last week. Cal is also getting 17 at home.

Oregon might keep this stunningly close, but 79 might be way light for the over/under against USC. The Trojans are about to hang 50 on the board against this miserable Duck D.

Marshall, you’re 12-point underdogs against Old Dominion. Take a look at yourself, Marshall, and what you’ve become.

Hawaii did a stunningly okay job against the New Mexico running game last week. San Diego State isn’t going to start bombing away on the Warrior D.

Texas did a stunningly okay job against the Baylor passing game last week. The offense is going to run for at least 300 yards on Texas Tech without breathing hard, but it’s Texas, so it’s still going to be a fight to get the win.

Texas A&M, if you really are the No. 4 team in the country, you beat this dog of a Mississippi State team by 33, not 13. Yeah, DDHD alert, but no.

Memphis -3 against SMU?! Dreadfully sorry, maybe I misheard you. Memphis -3 against SMU?

Iowa is overdue. It’s rested and it’s too good to not pull out a big win at some point. It’s not going to throw on Penn State, but the defense will have something for the suddenly red-hot Nittany Lion O.

Scared … to … death that Stanford might struggle to score 15 points, much less beat Oregon State – or anyone – by that many.

Arizona might be keeping its banged up team together with spit and a prayer, but it should be able to hang around with Washington State more than many might want to believe.

I’ve tried to spend the better part of the last decade trying to teach America that you don’t pick against Alabama. But if anyone is going to do it before the College Football Playoff, it’s going to be LSU.

Jon Lester can throw a pinpoint pitch to the plate, but has a funky brain-quirk when it comes to throwing to a base. That’s Wisconsin when it comes to turning the ball over against Northwestern. The Badgers are -11 in turnover margin against the Wildcats over the last three seasons. That stops in Evanston this time around.

The Ohio State -26 line vs. Northwestern last week was one of the weirder, not-even-close misfires to come out of the desert in a long, long time. Ohio State -17 against Nebraska might not be any saner.

New Mexico is going to run for 400 yards on Nevada. Do with that what you will.

I need to stop believing that Tulane is good enough to beat teams like UCF. One more week … Tulane is at least good enough to hang around with a team that is UCF.

AND FINALLY …

Houston Baptist lost to WKU 50-3 as part of a hit-every-branch ugly four-game losing streak before slipping by Lamar. The Huskies can’t score, but neither can UTEP. But if you’re going to post UTEP -22.5, Las Vegas, there’s someone out there who’s going to want to take it. They can’t all be Alabama-LSU.

Week 10 Fearless Predictions & Game Previews 
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | Ind | MAC | M-West | Sun Belt