2016 Valero Alamo Bowl Prediction, Colorado vs. Oklahoma St, Game Preview, History, Scores

2016 Valero Alamo Bowl Prediction, Colorado vs. Oklahoma St, Game Preview, History, Scores

PAC-12

2016 Valero Alamo Bowl Prediction, Colorado vs. Oklahoma St, Game Preview, History, Scores

Valero Alamo Bowl Prediction, Colorado vs. Oklahoma State Game Preview, History, Scores


Three reasons why you should watch the Valero Alamo Bowl between Colorado (10-3) vs. Oklahoma State (9-3), why each team might win, honest thoughts, line and prediction.


Broadcast

Date: Thursday, December 29th
Game Time: 9:00 pm
Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Network: ESPN

Contact/Follow @PeteFiutak

Scroll down for the video preview and bowl history

The Bowl Matchup Ranking Of Awesomeness (1 best-40 worst): 7 out of 40

Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Valero Alamo Bowl

It’s consistently the most interesting bowl game – period. TCU came up with an all-timer of a comeback last season to beat Oregon in a three-overtime thriller. UCLA got by Kansas State 40-35 in the Alamo two seasons ago. There have been a few blowouts here and there, but it’s been fun even when the final result is double-digits. Baylor beat Washington 67-57 in 2011, Texas Tech beat Michigan State in the 2009 season version, and there’s often a big storyline no matter what happens. This year shouldn’t be any different as two teams that had could’ve won their respective conference titles in the final weekend battle it out.

Just how real is Colorado? It’s been a fun storyline all year, and it’s been nice to have the former power program back, but the Buffs don’t really have any massive wins. Beating Utah and Washington State at home was nice, and getting by Stanford and Colorado State were charming, but there’s still a prove-it factor in play. In the program’s first bowl game since 2007, this will be a jacked-up team that’ll be looking to prove the doubters wrong. That might seem a bit hokey, but it’ll matter.

Just how real is Oklahoma State? Yeah, the Central Michigan game ended on a fluke and a missed call, but as it turned out, Central Michigan wasn’t that good at playing college football. The loss to Baylor looks worse now, and the blowout loss to Oklahoma cemented the Cowboys into a backup role in the Big 12. The narrative on the season changes with a win. Go 10-3, and the season will be considered a success, even without a conference title.

Here’s Why Colorado Will Win The Valero Alamo Bowl

If any secondary is going to slow down the Oklahoma State passing game, it’s Colorado’s. Playing in the pass-happy Pac-12, the Buffs were still unbelievable against the high-powered air shows. Just how amazing has the Colorado secondary been? No one hit the 50% completion mark over the last four games – and that includes Washington State, Utah and Washington – and on the year, eight of the 13 offenses on the slate couldn’t hit half of their passes, partly because …

The Buffs can bring the heat. Colorado doesn’t have a huge pass rush, but there’s enough of one – especially if end Jimmie Gilbert gets going – to potentially bother Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph. Colorado is great at generating pressure and putting its secondary in positions to make big plays. The D doesn’t have to be a brick wall, but it has to hold serve because …

The Buffaloes should be able to stampede. QB Sefo Liufau will be ready to go with an ankle injury that killed the Colorado chances in the Pac-12 Championship vs. Washington, but the offense should revolve around the ground attack. The running game was stuffed to a stop by Utah and Washington, and it failed to hit the 200-yard mark in four of the last five games, but Oklahoma State’s defensive front can be pounded on. Get ready for Phillip Lindsay to set up easy third down chances, and for Liufau to keep the chains moving.

Here’s Why Oklahoma State Will Win The Valero Alamo Bowl

Mason Rudolph might be just good enough to be the star who carries the Cowboys to a win. Rudolph suffered from playing in the same conference and the same state as Baker Mayfield, and he struggled in the loss to OU, but when he gets rolling, he’s one of the most accurate, dangerous quarterbacks in college football. The pro potential is there, and it’s possible that next year – if everything goes perfectly – that he grows into another Mitch Trubisky in terms of the scouting buzz. Having a big game against Colorado would get that rolling, and that’s where he’ll get help from …

James Washington. Like Rudolph, Washington suffered from playing in the same conference and the same state as Dede Westbrook, but he averaged close to 20 yards per catch with over 1.200 yards and nine scores on the season – highlighted by a 296-yard day against Pitt. He’s the field-stretcher who takes away the pressure from the other star Cowboy receivers, and he’s the home-run hitter the Buffs have to pay attention to on every play. Colorado was able to hold down Washington’s John Ross, but as fast as Ross is, Washington’s a better deep threat.

Colorado is great when it comes to turnover margin … but Oklahoma State is even better. +10 on the year, the Cowboys have turned it over fewer than twice in every game but three, and gave the ball away just three times in seven of the last eight games – the one whiff was a three-turnover performance in the win over Kansas State. Colorado won’t get many – if any – cheap and easy scoring chances.

You’ve Read This Far, So You Get Three Honest Thoughts On The Valero Alamo Bowl

Oklahoma State bowl games are usually awful. Can the Alamo Bowl factor help buck the trend? The Cowboys beat Stanford in an overtime thriller in the Fiesta to close out the 2011 season, but that was an aberration. From the 2007 Insight vs. Indiana, through last year’s clunker of a Sugar, eight of the last nine OSU bowl games were decided by eight points or more. When the Cowboys don’t show up, they really don’t show up, getting beaten by double-digits in two of the last three bowls.

Colorado used to be the bowl team of bowl teams. Colorado won six straight bowl games in the 1990s, but the program has been ultra-streaky historically in the post-season. Yeah, it won seven bowls in nine – including that great run – but before that, it lost seven straight from 1972 to 1989. It’s been a long, long time since the Buffs have been in a bowl – the 2007 Independence loss to Alabama – and they’re on a run of four losses in their last five.

This game will go a long way to reshaping the narrative. The Pac-12 didn’t beat anyone with a pulse in the non-conference this season – outside of the Big 12. Stanford beat Kansas State, Cal beat Texas, and Arizona State beat Texas Tech, but that’s been about it when it comes to the decent wins. The Pac-12 could really, really use as many restaurant quality wins this bowl season. The Big 12 could really, really use one more.

Super. So Who’s Going To Win The Valero Alamo Bowl?

Colorado might be far, far better now that it’ll get several weeks off to get healthy, and it should look like a different team with Liufau able to heal up a bit and do what he does. But Oklahoma State’s offense is about to get on a roll.

The explosiveness of the Cowboy offense will come through with the running game doing the work early on, and Rudolph getting into a groove in the second half.

The Buffs will keep up the pace in a shootout, but OSU is better equipped for what the game’s going to turn into.

It’s the Alamo Bowl. It’s going to be good.

Final Score

Oklahoma State 37, Colorado 34

Line

Colorado -3, o/u: 62.5

ATS Confidence: 3
5: Your New Year’s Eve chances to score in your favorite bar
0: Your New Year’s Eve chances to score after covering a College Football Playoff semifinal

Must See Rating: 4
5: New Year’s Eve: Defected In The House, Ministry of Sound, London
0: New Year’s Eve Live with Anderson Cooper and Special Co-Host Kathy Griffin

Get Tickets For The Valero Alamo Bowl

Alamo Bowl History, Results

Jan. 2, 2016 TCU 47 Oregon 41 (3 OT)
Jan. 2, 2015 UCLA 40 Kansas State 35
Dec. 30, 2013 Oregon 30 Texas 7
Dec. 29, 2012 Texas 31 Oregon State 27
Dec. 29, 2011 Baylor 67 Washington 57
Dec. 29, 2010 Oklahoma State 36 Arizona 10
Jan. 2, 2010 Texas Tech 41 Michigan State 31
Dec. 29, 2008 Missouri 30 Northwestern 23 (OT)
Dec. 30, 2007 Penn State 24 Texas A&M 17
Dec. 30, 2006 Texas 26 Iowa 24
Dec. 28, 2005 Nebraska 32 Michigan 28
Dec. 29, 2004 Ohio State 33 Oklahoma State 7
Dec. 29, 2003 Nebraska 17 Michigan State 3
Dec. 28, 2002 Wisconsin 31 Colorado 28
Dec. 29, 2001 Iowa 19 Texas Tech 16
Dec. 30, 2000 Nebraska 66 Northwestern 17
Dec. 28, 1999 Penn State 24 Texas A&M 0
Dec. 29, 1998 Purdue 37 Kansas State 34
Dec. 30, 1997 Purdue 33 Oklahoma State 20
Dec. 29, 1996 Iowa 27 Texas Tech 0
Dec. 28, 1995 Texas A&M 22 Michigan 20
Dec. 31, 1994 Washington State 10 Baylor 3
Dec. 31, 1993 California 37 Iowa 3

More Bowl Projections
Home