2016 Capital One Orange Bowl, Michigan vs. Florida State Prediction, Game Preview, History, Scores

2016 Capital One Orange Bowl, Michigan vs. Florida State Prediction, Game Preview, History, Scores


2016 Capital One Orange Bowl, Michigan vs. Florida State Prediction, Game Preview, History, Scores

Capital One Orange Bowl Prediction, Michigan vs. Florida State Game Preview, History, Scores

Three reasons why you should watch the Capital One Orange Bowl between Michigan (10-2) and Florida State (9-3), why each team might win, honest thoughts, line and prediction.


Date: December 30th
Game Time: 8:00 pm
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Network: ESPN

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Scroll down for the video preview and bowl history

The Bowl Matchup Ranking Of Awesomeness (1 best-40 worst): 4 out of 40

Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Capital One Orange Bowl

Okay, Michigan. You belonged in the College Football Playoff? Prove it. This is the statement time to show that, yeah, the Wolverines probably did belong among the top four teams in college football at the end of the year. They had the defense, and they had the chance to come up with one big stop to get by Ohio State and roll into the Big Ten Championship. Blow out Florida State, and we’ll all be talking about how nice it would’ve been to see what this team might have done.

Okay, Florida State. You were really better than 9-3? Prove it. Injuries played a huge role early on, but the defense ran into a buzzsaw against Louisville, gacked late against North Carolina, and battled hard in a loss to Clemson. The Noles have been an interesting underachiever over the last two seasons, but win this, and the narrative starts to change.

This is like defensive line porn. Alabama’s defensive front might be the best in college football, and there might be a few other terrific ones in the discussion, but these two could have the best D lines outside of Tuscaloosa. Michigan’s end tandem of Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton are the real stars of the defense – more on that in a moment – and the interior is a brick wall around Ryan Glasgow.

Florida State DE DeMarcus Walker played like the best lineman in the country at times. With Josh Sweat on the other side, and Demarcus Christmas and Derrick Nnadi in the interior, this group is a terror behind the line.

Here’s Why Florida State Will Win The Capital One Orange Bowl

The Michigan offense hasn’t rolled on anyone good in a long, long while. For all the positives against Ohio State, the Wolverines only gained 310 yards. It stalled against Indiana and came to a dead stop against Iowa, meaning the three worst offensive performances – at least in terms of yards – came in the final three games. Florida State has the defensive playmakers to keep the Wolverine offense from exploding. Michigan isn’t going to outrun the Seminoles, and …

Michigan’s not going to power away on the FSU front seven. No one has lined up and gone smashmouth on the Noles, and any time anyone tried to bring the power, it didn’t work. South Florida and Louisville were the only two teams that came up with any real rushing success – they were the only two to get over the 200-yard mark on the ground – and they were more about quickness and speed. Wilton Speight isn’t Lamar Jackson or Quinton Flowers running the ball. Clemson and NC State were the only two teams to crank out more than 100 rushing yards in the final seven games, and neither one rolled easily.

Dalvin Cook is playing. He should take the Leonard Fournette/Christian McCaffrey route and save himself for the NFL, but he’s not – now he has to be the star of the show. Granted, he’s going against an elite run defense with a month to prepare, but at the very least, he’ll take up at least 94% of the focus of the Michigan front seven. NC State was the only team to keep him under 100 yards in the final nine games as he went on a Heisman-worthy tear, however …

Here’s Why Michigan Will Win The Capital One Orange Bowl

The Florida State O line – at times – is just okay. The talent is there, especially on the left side with tackle Roderick Johnson and guard Kareem Are, and it’s hard to argue with what this group did to pave the way for Cook’s 1,620-yard season, but it had a rough time keeping good defenses out of the backfield. QB Deondre Francois was popped way too often, and there were way too many negative plays allowed. It also didn’t help that …

FSU gets flagged way too often. It’s not like this has always been a massive problem under Jimbo Fisher that becomes a part of the system, but this year’s team had a particular problem when it came to getting caught for sinning. The Noles were flagged almost eight times per game for 74 yards – the fifth-worst in the country. Things got better over the final month of the year, but they were hit with 13 penalties in each of the losses to North Carolina and Clemson and eight times against Louisville. Michigan didn’t commit more than eight penalties in any game.

This Michigan defense really is amazing. Again, the line is awesome, Jabrill Peppers and company swarm at the second level, and Jourdan Lewis and the secondary lead the nation in pass defense. Granted, the Wolverines didn’t face a whole slew of high-octane passing games, but only allowing more than 200 yards through the air twice is still impressive. Penn State is in the Rose Bowl, and it couldn’t crack the 200 total yard mark. Wisconsin couldn’t even get to 160. Most amazing is what this group does on third downs, allowing offenses to convert just 21% of the time – best in the nation.

You’ve Read This Far, So You Get Three Honest Thoughts On The Capital One Orange Bowl

Florida State was on a roll. It was an all-timer of a bowl team under Bobby Bowden, going on a ridiculous 11 bowl winning streak and with a 13-0-1 record up until losing the first BCS Championship. And then things were okay, going 4-5 after that loss to Tennessee before winning six straight from the 2010 Gator to the 2014 BCS Championship. In its last two bowl games, though, FSU has lost by a combined score of 97 to 44.

Michigan hasn’t been much better, at least pre-Jim. It’s been lousy in bowls – going 3-7 in the past ten – but it came up with one of the best performance of last bowl season destroying Florida 41-7 in the Citrus. Harbaugh is 2-1 in bowls, and a win would start to create even more of an aura. It’s good to be known as the guy who can win big bowl games.

We deserve an awesome Orange Bowl. The 2014 version with Clemson beating Ohio State 40-35 was terrific, but that was the oasis in a desert of miserable Miami games. This years to be a big, giant bowl game, but seven of the last eight and nine of the last 12 have been blowouts.

Super. So Who’s Going To Win The Capital One Orange Bowl?

Michigan can prove it’s special under Jim Harbaugh with time to prepare, while Florida State is one of the teams this bowl season that most needed the rest.

Both teams should come into the game ready to roll at a high level.

This certainly won’t be the FSU of last bowl season – when it didn’t get off the bus against Houston – but it’s offense is about to run into a brick wall.

And so is Michigan’s.

This should be a defensive-dominated game with points impossible to come by easily. FSU has the nation’s No. 1 red zone offense, Michigan the No. 2 red zone defense, but the Wolverines will be just a wee bit better with the downfield passing game, and the defense will play just a wee bit better.

Final Score

Michigan 23, Florida State 17


Michigan -7, o/u: 52.5

ATS Confidence: 3
5: Your New Year’s Eve chances to score in your favorite bar
0: Your New Year’s Eve chances to score after covering a College Football Playoff semifinal

Must See Rating: 4,5
5: New Year’s Eve: Defected In The House, Ministry of Sound, London
0: New Year’s Eve Live with Anderson Cooper and Special Co-Host Kathy Griffin

Get Tickets For The Capital One Orange Bowl

Orange Bowl History, Results

Dec. 31, 2015 Clemson 37 Oklahoma 17
Dec. 31, 2014 Georgia Tech 49 Mississippi State 34
Jan. 3, 2014 Clemson 40 Ohio State 35
Jan. 1, 2013 Florida State 31 Northern Illinois 10
Jan. 4, 2012 West Virginia 70 Clemson 33
Jan. 3, 2011 Stanford 40 Virginia Tech 12
Jan. 5, 2010 Iowa 24 Georgia Tech 14
Jan. 1, 2009 Virginia Tech 20 Cincinnati 7
Jan. 3, 2008 Kansas 24 Virginia Tech 21
Jan. 2, 2007 Louisville 24 Wake Forest 13
Jan. 2, 2006 Penn State 26 Florida State 23 (3 OT)
Jan. 4, 2005 USC 55 Oklahoma 19
Jan. 1, 2004 Miami 16 Florida State 14
Jan. 2, 2003 USC 38 Iowa 17
Jan. 2, 2002 Florida 56 Maryland 23
Jan. 3, 2001 Oklahoma 13 Florida State 2
Jan. 1, 2000 Michigan 35 Alabama 34 (OT)
Jan. 2, 1999 Florida 31 Syracuse 0
Jan. 2, 1998 Nebraska 42 Tennessee 17
Dec. 31, 1996 Nebraska 41 Virginia Tech 21
Jan. 1, 1996 Florida State 31 Notre Dame 26
Jan. 2, 1995 Nebraska 24 Miami 17
Jan. 1, 1994 Florida State 18 Nebraska 16
Jan. 1, 1993 Florida State 27 Nebraska 14
Jan. 1, 1992 Miami 22 Nebraska 0
Jan. 1, 1991 Colorado 10 Notre Dame 9
Jan. 1, 1990 Notre Dame 21 Colorado 6
Jan. 2, 1989 Miami 23 Nebraska 3
Jan. 1, 1988 Miami 20 Oklahoma 14
Jan. 1, 1987 Oklahoma 42 Arkansas 8
Jan. 1, 1986 Oklahoma 25 Penn State 10
Jan. 1, 1985 Washington 28 Oklahoma 17
Jan. 2, 1984 Miami 31 Nebraska 30
Jan. 1, 1983 Nebraska 21 LSU 20
Jan. 1, 1982 Clemson 22 Nebraska 15
Jan. 1, 1981 Oklahoma 18 Florida State 17
Jan. 1, 1980 Oklahoma 24 Florida State 7
Jan. 1, 1979 Oklahoma 31 Nebraska 24
Jan. 2, 1978 Arkansas 31 Oklahoma 0
Jan. 1, 1977 Ohio State 27 Colorado 10
Jan. 1, 1976 Oklahoma 14 Michigan 6
Jan. 1, 1975 Notre Mae 13 Alabama 11
Jan. 1, 1974 Penn State 16 LSU 9
Jan. 1, 1973 Nebraska 40 Notre Dame 6
Jan. 1, 1972 Nebraska 38 Alabama 6
Jan. 1, 1971 Nebraska 17 LSU 12
Jan. 1, 1970 Penn State 10 Missouri 3
Jan. 1, 1969 Penn State 15 Kansas 14
Jan. 1, 1968 Oklahoma 26 Tennessee 24
Jan. 2, 1967 Florida 27 Georgia Tech 12
Jan. 1, 1966 Alabama 39 Nebraska 28
Jan. 1, 1965 Texas 21 Alabama 17
Jan. 1, 1964 Nebraska 13 Auburn 7
Jan. 1, 1963 Alabama 17 Oklahoma 0
Jan. 1, 1962 LSU 25 Colorado 7
Jan. 2, 1961 Missouri 21 Navy 14
Jan. 1, 1960 Georgia 14 Missouri 0
Jan. 1, 1959 Oklahoma 21 Syracuse 6
Jan. 1, 1958 Oklahoma 48 Duke 21
Jan. 1, 1957 Colorado 27 Clemson 21
Jan. 2, 1956 Oklahoma 20 Maryland 6
Jan. 1, 1955 Duke 34 Nebraska 7
Jan. 1, 1954 Oklahoma 7 Maryland 0
Jan. 1, 1953 Alabama 61 Syracuse 6
Jan. 1, 1952 Georgia Tech 17 Baylor 14
Jan. 1, 1951 Clemson 15 Miami 14
Jan. 2, 1950 Santa Clara 21 Kentucky 13
Jan. 1, 1949 Texas 41 Georgia 28
Jan. 1, 1948 Georgia Tech 20 Kansas 14
Jan. 1, 1947 Rice 8 Tennessee 0
Jan. 1, 1946 Miami 13 Holy Cross (MA) 6
Jan. 1, 1945 Tulsa 26 Georgia Tech 12
Jan. 1, 1944 LSU 19 Texas A&M 14
Jan. 1, 1943 Alabama 37 Boston College 21
Jan. 1, 1942 Georgia 40 TCU 26
Jan. 1, 1941 Mississippi State 14 Georgetown 7
Jan. 1, 1940 Georgia Tech 21 Missouri 7
Jan. 2, 1939 Tennessee 17 Oklahoma 0
Jan. 1, 1938 Auburn 6 Michigan State 0
Jan. 1, 1937 Duquesne 13 Mississippi 12
Jan. 1, 1936 Catholic 20 Mississippi 19
Jan. 1, 1935 Bucknell 26 Miami 0

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