Check out the final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice for Week 12 – because you have to.
Week 12 College Football Final Thoughts, Predictions & Advice
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I’m challenging you, college football.
Last week you came up with a gem, cranking out amazing game after amazing game, upset after upset, and it’s turned this season into something fun.
Now do it again.
Houston’s atomic wedgie applied to the Louisville College Football Playoff dream – which was never really alive, anyway – was a fun start, but overall, this week feels like the big boys are going to make statements after everything that kicked in last weekend.
Call it the jockeying-for-position Saturday.
This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only. However, just in case you dabble …
– The Louisville offensive line should be arrested for what it let happen to Lamar Jackson. The Houston defensive front put on a clinic, but penalty after penalty, whiff after whiff, got the eventual Heisman-winner destroyed. I didn’t have that happening, but Houston covering? Yup.
– Cincinnati can’t score. That’s sort of a problem when you’re trying to win college football games, and even at home, and even with a bowl bid still a part of the fight, the Bearcats aren’t going to keep up against Memphis.
– Don’t be stunned if UNLV doesn’t get totally roasted. Boise State has kicked it in, but the Rebels have made a habit of keeping things relatively close, even when they’re getting ripped apart.
– Speaking of teams looking to come back roaring, Appalachian State is going to slaughter ULM. Then again, I thought Troy was going to take the Sun Belt title on Thursday night against Arkansas State. This has been a weird, wild Sun Belt season.
– You’re not going to like it, and I hear you, but UConn and Boston College aren’t going to combine for 37 points. The Huskies might not score.
– UTEP is miserable, and it’s on the road, but I’m not giving away a fraction of a point to any game Rice plays.
– The defensive line play in the Miami-NC State game will be phenomenal. NC State needs the game more and is overdue for a nice win. This would have to qualify.
– Admittedly stupid pick of the week – Texas Tech will blast Iowa State. The Cyclones are at home, but ol’ Pat Mahomes and that offense is only giving away three? I know everyone gets to have fun against the Red Raider defense, but I’m not sure Iowa State can put the 45 on the board needed to have a seat at the table.
– Lost in the win over Michigan was how the Iowa offense still isn’t working so hot. But Illinois won’t move the ball a lick, so while it’s usually moronic to pick against a Double Digit Home Dog (DDHD) on Senior Day, yeah, don’t be afraid.
– Northwestern will throw the ball a million times on Minnesota, but the Gophers are just good enough to grind this game out at home. If it seems like I’m wishy-washy on this, I am. The Wildcats are just too flaky.
– If Wisconsin isn’t about making statements to the CFP, try telling that to Illinois last week. However, be careful here – Purdue’s David Blough is going to push around the Badger secondary a bit.
– Maybe Duke is just good. Maybe this defense really is starting to come into its own, and the offense is just effective enough to get by. Pitt’s defense is a nightmare – mostly because the Pat Narduzzi scheme appears to be designed to expose its limited corners – but there might be a little too much overlove for the Panthers after beating Clemson.
– While I’ll be happy to sit here and take a meeting if it’s 55-3 the wrong way, UTSA isn’t going to be four touchdowns worse than Texas A&M. Yeah, the Aggies will be jacked after last week’s collapse, but these Roadrunners are just plucky enough to be annoying.
– Don’t let Nebraska give 13 points to anyone. There are too many mediocre pieces fitting in a solid overall puzzle – Maryland won’t get rolled.
– West Virginia scares me. Skyler Howard seems like he’s due for a sick and twisted statistical performance, but no one’s playing better right now than Baker Mayfield. Oklahoma’s running game won’t work, and the team won’t get off to a hot start, but that’ll change as the game goes on. It’ll be a wild shootout that’ll have everyone buzzing next week.
– When in doubt, just take the better team. Middle Tennessee if four points better than Charlotte. Of course.
– Massachusetts is 2-8, but it has yet to get blown out in truly brutal fashion. It hasn’t lost to anyone by more than 28 points, and that was to a high-powered and unstoppable Louisiana Tech. BYU is giving up 29.
– Will Georgia care about Louisiana-Lafayette? Not enough.
– San Diego State vs. Wyoming might be the most intriguing game of the weekend that you won’t watch. Donnel Pumphrey and Brian Hill are worth the price of admission, but overall, this game might defy all logic and reason. The Aztecs don’t need this game having already clinched the West, and Laramie is turning into a dangerous place, but the SDSU defense is bringing it lately.
– There’s no reason to think Colorado State can beat New Mexico, other than that it needs to if it wants to go bowling. The Rams will slow down the Lobo ground game just enough, but it’ll be close.
– I will be genuinely stunned if Michigan doesn’t put up 24 points in the first quarter on Indiana. The Hoosier offense is about to have a very, very bad day.
– Virginia Tech is better than Notre Dame, but DeShone Kizer is going to be better than the Hokie secondary. Call this the narrative pick – the USC game has to mean something next week. It will if the Fighting Irish are pushing for bowl eligibility, but that’s not going to happen if the Hokies show up this week and play like they’re able. I’ve been wrong all year about this team, but eventually, Notre Dame will prove me right.
– Kansas State and Baylor are bad for each other. The Wildcat running game, though, is about to make life even more difficult for the reeling Bear team that’ll struggle with Zach Smith under center.
– My unnatural Syracuse love has proved costly – especially when I cheated on it with Virginia Tech in the Hokie loss in the Carrier Dome – but at home, I’ll live with the DDHD theory against Florida State.
– I didn’t get it last week when Ole Miss was a 20-point dog against Texas A&M, and I get it even less this week when it’s a 10-point favorite on the road over Vanderbilt. The Commodores are going to win this outright.
– Of course you never give away double-digit points if you’re New Mexico State. Of course. Unless you’re playing Texas State, who peaked in Week 1 and have been among the three worst teams in college football ever since.
– And the worst team in the Pac-12 is … Arizona. Actually, Arizona is the most banged up team in the Pac-12, but Oregon State won’t care. The Beavers need to have their fun.
– Washington is going to score 54 points on Arizona State. Do with that what you must.
– In the Battle Of Teams That Matter Who Don’t Have A Decent Win, Washington State’s defense is about to play really, really well in Boulder. The Cougars are going to keep pressing for a full sixty minutes in a shootout that’ll blow past the 61-point over/under.
– Christian McCaffrey might run for 300 yards on Cal, and that’s not going overboard in any way.
– Don’t make me do this. Don’t make me say it. You know it even before I spit out the first syllable. If you’re trying to find an investment edge in Southern Miss vs. North Texas, you need to take a break. Find a less self-destructive hobby that won’t mess you up – like meth.
– Western Michigan might be amazing, but all Buffalo has to do is score twice to ruin the 35-point line, even in K-Zoo.
– You don’t have Butch Davis on the sidelines yet, FIU, but the team will still beat Marshall in a stunningly fun home game.
– I don’t care if the pick is wrong, if someone is offering you the gift horse of Arkansas, or anyone, and points vs. Mississippi State, you saddle up, Cowboy.
– I don’t care if the pick is wrong, if someone is offering you the gift horse of Hawaii, or anyone, and giving away only three points vs. Fresno State, you saddle up, Cowboy.
– If South Florida and SMU really hit the 74 point mark, it’s going to be because USF is doing the heavy lifting. That o/u feels about ten points heavy.
– Surprising that the Tulsa-UCF line only moved a little bit. UCF might be playing some D, but that O can’t keep up.
– Yeah, yeah, yeah, the DDHD factor defies all logic and reason, but logic proves that Temple’s defense has stepped it up to a whole other level, and reason dictates that Tulane isn’t going to move the ball a lick.
– You’re not wrong either way in the Ohio State-Michigan State game. How’s this for professional advice? I sort of like the Spartans to keep this within three scores, “just because.”
– Let me put it this way. Texas had better be 24 points better than Kansas.
– Wake Forest seemed like a sexy pick vs. Clemson, considering it’s at home and can play the role of spoiler, but the Tigers are going to come out roaring. Clemson’s D line will make Houston’s performance against Louisville look like a pile of half-eaten muffins.
– Ehhhhhhhhh, yeah, of course Missouri isn’t playing well, but again, ehhhhhhhhh – I feel a little queasy about Tennessee giving away 16.5 to anyone.
– The rivalry game has taken a weird twist and turn, and Georgia Southern isn’t playing like Georgia Southern, but it’ll come up with more than three points than Georgia State will.
– DDHD, rivalry, UCLA needing this win, USC getting a bit too much love – if you wanted to argue the Bruins will pull this off outright, you’re probably not wrong.
– If you wanted to argue that the 70.5 combined points between Oklahoma State and TCU might be off by at least 20, in what should be a wild shootout, you’re probably not wrong.
– Gut feeling – and the last time I had this I said before the Navy game that Notre Dame was going to win out – TCU, coming off a week off, is about to be fantastic.
– There’s ABSOLUTELY NO BASIS FOR THIS other than it being a Jersey thing, and part of me refuses to believe that Penn State is going to be in my 2016 Big Ten Championship, but it’ll be interesting to see what kind of fight Rutgers has.
– Oregon-Utah 70.5-point total seems way, way off. The Ute defense might shut down the Ducks to a dead stop.
– Air Force ran for close to 500 yards last week against Colorado State. San Jose State isn’t as good as Colorado State.
– No. Whatever you’re thinking about between Utah State and Nevada, just … no.
– Of course Navy is 7.5 points better than East Carolina. This weird Pirate team can throw, but it can’t do it if its offense isn’t on the field.
– 1) I hate this, but Florida-LSU might actually go under the 39.5, and 2) I hate this even more considering my LSU love at the moment, but this might be close.
AND FINALLY …
The FCSers will make some noise. Be very, very, very, VERY careful, North Carolina, vs. The Citadel, Western Carolina might just push South Carolina a wee bit, and UT Chattanooga could just give Alabama a tougher time than Auburn will next week.